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Tuesday, May 2nd
The EUR/USD pair prolongs its positive trend since the beginning of this week, mainly being supported by ongoing talks about upcoming French election, that are scheduled on this weekend. According to the latest opinion E. Macron remains in the lead in the election race, gaining 60% of votes and outperforming his far-right opponent M.Le Pen, which managed to gain 40% of votes, respectively. Moreover, ongoing softness around the USD is also lending extra leg of support to the major currency pair lately. Nothing much is scheduled in data calendar for this Tuesday, so the pair will continue to trace global market sentiments ahead of this week's key risky events, such as FOMC meeting, NFP and second round of the French election.
Seems that the AUD/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum, meeting resistance at 0.7556 level, after uneventful RBA meeting and negative Chinese data. As it was widely expected the Australian CB left its interest rate unchanged at 1.5%, while keeping its policy stance largely neutral. However, the Bank also noted a positive outlook for the further economic growth as a projection on broadly based pick-up in the global economy. On the other hand, poor Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI negatively affected broader risk trend, thereby weighing all higher-yielding assets, such as the Aussie. Adding to this, weaker sentiments in commodity market are also collaborating with pair’s recent retreat. Today the economic data calendar will keep silence, so the pair will keep following global markets trend to determine its further course.
The GBP/USD pair continues to move in south direction, suffering from stiff divorce terms for Britain at Brussels summit on Saturday. This morning the pair managed to recover part of last session’s losses in wake of ongoing softness around the US dollar, however, the recovery was faded quickly, as renewed worries of “hard Brexit” scenario are still gripping the market. Now immediate focus shifts on UK Manufacturing PMI, that is scheduled on European trading session, while the US economic docket won’t offer any data that could potentially impact the price action, so any news surrounding Brexit negotiations will stay as a crucial driver for the pair during this trading session.
The USD/JPY pair keeps it bullish trend for the fourth consecutive session, breaking through the 112.00 handle this morning. Pair’s bullish momentum can be mainly attributed to better risk appetite, seen during Asian trades. However, further pair’s growth seems fragile, as markets turn cautiousness ahead of next big event – FOMC decision, that is scheduled on Wednesday. Expected, that the Central Bank will keep its interest rate unchanged this time, while any hints on further Fed’s policy moves will provide fresh impetus for the pair's next leg of directional move. Moreover, upcoming crucial monthly jobs report from the US will also keep the market in stressed state, thereby supporting yen’s safe-haven status. Today economic data calendar will remain empty, so broader risk trend and US dollar’s price action will keep navigating the pair during this trading session.
The main events of the day:
UK Manufacturing PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0861 R. 1.0941
USDJPY S. 110.93 R. 112.37
GBPUSD S. 1.2843 R. 1.2963
USDCHF S. 0.9916 R. 0.9988
AUDUSD S. 0.7433 R. 0.7585
NZDUSD S. 0.6821 R. 0.6967
USDCAD S. 1.3617 R. 1.3717
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