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8 November 2016, 12:21

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Tuesday, November 8th


Things are moving, US presidential elections has begun. And the first voters were the residents of a small mountain town called Dixville Notchin in New Hampshire, that is located directly on the border with Canada. And the results of the exit poll are: H.Clinton 4 votes, D.Trump – 2 votes, other candidates received by one vote each. The town’s population is 12 people, and only 8 of which took part in the vote. An international news agency Reuters says that H.Clinton has 90% chances to win this race this fact strongly supports US dollar. Moreover, according to popular vote results H.Clinton is leading US presidential election with 45% of votes vs. 42% owned by D.Trump but the final results will be released later in Europe.


Risk-off sentiment is gathering pace as various factors are muting traders risk appetite across the board. Market held its breath as US presidential election has begun with narrow lead of H.Clinton against her main opponent D.Trump thereby broadly extending nervousness across the market. Moreover, downbeat Chinese Trade Balance for October showed bigger-than expected drop in exports additionally bringing cautious sentiments amid FX traders.


Today the pound continues to keep its bearish trend as ongoing talks, that Article 50 was triggered by UK government and the process of exiting the European Union has begun, are majorly suppressing the GBP/USD pair. However, today’s US election will take the center stage so the pair most likely will stay following global markets sentiment as US dynamic will remain as main driver for the pair. Nevertheless, today UK economy will exclusively provide the market with the only crucial report of Manufacturing Production amid US election nervousness that expectedly will provide the market with limited impetus as now all market’s attention is drawn on developments around US political situation.


The main events of the day:

UK Manufacturing Production – 11.30 (+2 GMT)

US Presidential Election – 14.00 (+2 GMT)

Canadian Housing Starts – 15.15 (+2 GMT)


Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs

EURUSD        S. 1.0976 R. 1.1142   

USDJPY         S. 103.38 R. 105.16   

GBPUSD        S. 1.2304 R. 1.2542   

USDCHF        S. 0.9693 R. 0.9813   

AUDUSD       S. 0.7632 R. 0.7776

NZDUSD       S. 0.7273 R. 0.7383

USDCAD       S. 1.3294 R. 1.3450


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