EUR/USD: Eurozone economic data come out weak. Waiting NFP

EUR/USD: Eurozone economic data come out weak. Waiting NFP

2 September 2016, 12:28
PCM-Brokers
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TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS

 According to Eurostat data released today, the final GDP of Italy, whose economy is the second largest after Germany, in the 2nd quarter + 0% and + 0.8% in annual terms. PPI of Eurozone in July is + 0.1% and -2.8% in annual terms.

Published in late August, other indicators of the economy of the Eurozone: Consumer price index (a key indicator of inflation in the euro area), sentiment indicator in the services sector (in August fell to 11.2 vs. 10 forecast in the previous month), the index of business optimism in industry (down to a value of -4.4 vs. expected decline to -2.8 and -2.6 in July), the business climate indicator (down to a value of 0.02 against 0.33 and 0.38 according to the forecast in July) - signal a slowdown in the growth of the Eurozone economy.

Today, investors take a wait in anticipation of the release of the August labor market data in the US, which will be published today at 12:30 (GMT). The report could clarify the short-term prospects for the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System.

The indicator of job growth in the US (Non-Farm PayRolls) in August usually falls under the influence of seasonal factors, and for the past five consecutive years, it does not justify the expectations of the market. The growth rate is expected Non-Farm PayRolls 180 000 new jobs. However, some economists expect an increase in jobs outside the US agriculture 150 000 in August If the deviation exceeds 20%, the US dollar will fall sharply in the foreign exchange market, because expectations of interest rate rises in the US in the coming months, especially in September, significantly weakened. The decision on raising interest rates in the US will be made at the next Fed meeting on 20-21 September.

Yesterday came out mixed US macroeconomic indicators. Many of them turned out to be weaker than predicted values. The US dollar fell to a pair of EUR / USD, as well as against the pound, the New Zealand and Australian dollars. At these rates the Fed can not go for a rate hike in September. Therefore, from the labor market report will depend a lot in the decision on US interest rates.

In the euro area is weak macroeconomic indicators out recently. The ECB may once again put on the agenda the question of the possibility of a new easing of monetary policy at the meeting on 8 September and this will exert downward pressure on the euro and the pair EUR / USD

 

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