Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (August 22 - 26, 2016)

21 August 2016, 20:59
1246536 Ernest G.

Here’s the market outlook for this week: Content courtesy of Tallinex Limited https://www.tallinex.com


Dominant bias: Bullish
Last week saw a gain of 200 pips - testing the resistance line at 1.1350 before the current shallow retracement, so the resistance lines at 1.1400 and 1.1450 may be targeted this week, but bulls are likely to encounter some challenges. A pullback is possible, which might bring another opportunity to go long at a lower price, but may also bring an end to the current bullish outlook.

Dominant bias: Bearish
Price mirrored EURUSD - moving briefly below the support level at 0.9550, and then closing at 0.9600 on Friday. A Bearish Confirmation Pattern now exists, so price may continue downwards (conditional on EURUSD trending upwards), otherwise a rally will ensue - assisted by any show of weakness in EURUSD or CHF (which could experience some weakness against the majors this week).

Dominant bias: Bearish
After climbing from Tuesday to Friday, price slid over 130 pips on Friday - closing above the accumulation territory at 1.3050, so a climb of over 300 pips from here will be needed to invalidate the bearish outlook. Without that, a further pullback is possible, which may be bolstered by a bearish move on GBPCAD (since CAD should rally against other pairs this week, and these pairs are positively correlated at times). Ultimately, it is helpful to know how conditions surrounding other pairs and crosses affect the instrument we focus on.

Dominant bias: Bearish
August 15 and 16 saw a decline of 170 pips, but price then moved sideways for the rest of the week - all in the context of a downtrend. The outlook for JPY pairs continues to be bearish (though CADJPY could rally when CAD gains strength). This week, the demand levels at 100.00, 99.50 and 99.00 might be tested as 100.00 and 99.50 were tested last week, but price could not stay below them.

Dominant bias: Neutral
Two weeks of consolidation has brought about a neutral bias in the near term (although the long-term bias is bearish). Further sideways movement will continue to emphasize the neutral bias prior to a breakout occurring (this week or next) - most likely towards the demand zones at 112.50, 112.00 and 111.50.

I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:

Now I am devoted to Forex and fully focused on developing my trading strategy to become a full-time trader.” - Lukasz (source: Tradimo)

Azeez Mustapha
Currency Analyst
Tallinex Limited
The Jaycees Building, Stoney Ground
PO Box 362, Kingstown, VC0100
St Vincent and the Grenadines

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