Talking Points

• EUR/USD eyeing near-term resistance ahead of U.S. ISM Services
• Updated targets & invalidation levels

EURUSD 120min

Technical Outlook: EURUSD is trading within the confines of a median-line formation extending off the June / July lows with today’s rally now testing a key Fibonacci confluence at 1.1228/31. The immediate topside bias is vulnerable here but the trade remains constructive while above a pair of parallels which converge on the weekly opening-range low at 1.1155.

A breach higher targets the median-line parallel extending off the December low (~1.1250) backed by the descending upper median-line parallel extending off the yearly high (~1.1285).From a trading standpoint, I would be looking to fade euro weakness on a move lower with a break below 1.1076 needed to shift the broader focus back to the downside lower.

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• A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows traders are net short EURUSD- the ratio stands at -2.01(33% of traders are long)-bullishreading
• Yesterday the ratio was -1.81. Short positions are 8.0% higher than yesterday and 53.7% above levels seen last week.
• Open interest is 4.2% higher than yesterday and 14.5% above its monthly average.
• SSI flipped to net short on last week as the exchange rate rebounded off structural support- constructive. An increase in long exposure on building open interest keeps the long-bias in play. That said, the pair is coming into key near-term resistance with the risk for a pullback before rallying to new highs