EUR Positioning A Catch-Up Opportunity; GBP Positioning Underexposed Short GBP Trade

EUR Positioning A Catch-Up Opportunity; GBP Positioning Underexposed Short GBP Trade

10 July 2016, 23:57
Vasilii Apostolidi
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Data in this report cover the period through Tuesday Jul 5.

CFTC data for the week through July 5th suggest speculative accounts view the major currency universe as a risky place.Aggregate positioning saw a marginal increase in overall exposure to the net long USD trade over the prior week but the bull bet on the big dollar remains at relatively subdued levels.

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The aftermath of Brexit is keeping positioning defensive more generally.

Investors boosted net short GBP positioning a little (by 6k contracts, or nearly USD430mn) but look somewhat underexposed the short GBP trade, given the moves.

The EUR perhaps reflects a catch up opportunity, with the market lifting net short exposure here USD1.9bn to USD10.4bn on the week. This is the largest bet against the EUR since mid-March.

More defensive positioning was evident as investors boosted net JPY longs (by 4k contracts, or USD540mn) this week, taking the accumulated net long position to 63.5k—high, but still a little short of recent peaks around 72k contracts. Meanwhile, net gold longs rose by USD3.25bn to total a massive USD42.8bn—which appears to be another record.

Positioning changes were limited in the AUD and NZD while net CHF longs were actually reduced modestly, in contrast to the behavior noted above. Net CAD longs rose 4k contracts modestly in the week as gross shorts reduced exposure.

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