EUR/USD Current price: 1.1107
The common currency extended its recovery against the greenback to fresh weekly highs, reaching 1.1154, following the release of better-than-expected European inflation. According to the Eurostat flash estimate, inflation is expected to be up in June by 0.1%, leaving negative territory. Also, and compared to a year before, is expected to rise to 0.9% from previous 0.8%. Earlier in the day, German data came in mixed, with Retail Sales surging monthly basis to 0.9%, but the year-on-year reading resulting at 2.6%, below market's expectations of 3.0%. The unemployment rate remained steady at 6.1% in May, while the unemployment change resulted at -6K, better than the -5K expected.
The EUR/USD pair retreated down to 1.1090 from the mentioned high, but recovered back to above 1.1100, although the risk remains towards the downside, given that in the 1 hour chart, the price is now developing below its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have turned horizontal around their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the price remains above a mild bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head south, but within positive territory, maintaining the upside limited. Overall, the risk is towards the downside, although it will take a break below 1.1055 to see the pair accelerating its decline, down to 1.0970.
Support levels: 1.1055 1.1020 1.0970
Resistance levels: 1.1130 1.1165 1.1200
GBP/USD Current price: 1.3447
The GBP/USD pair holds above the 1.3400 mark, but has been unable so far to extend its gains beyond 1.3530, the high reached this Wednesday. In the news, Conservative Party member and favorite to be the next PM Theresa May, has asserted her intentions to honor the recent ‘Brexit’ vote, spurring some risk aversion ahead of Wall Street opening, and pushing the pair down modestly from the 1.3500 region, a level that today seems to be attracting selling interest. Short term, the 1 hour chart presents a neutral stance, with the price hovering around a horizontal 20 SMA and the technical indicators lacking directional strength around their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the pair is trading above a horizontal 20 SMA, but technical indicators have lost upward strength and the RSI indicator already heads south below its mid-line, increasing the risk of a bearish extension for the upcoming hours.
Support levels: 1.3430 1.3390 1.3350
Resistance levels: 1.3485 1.3530 1.3575
USD/JPY Current price: 102.80
Still flat below 103.00. The USD/JPY continues to lack clear directional strength, confined to a tight range right below the 103.00 figure. Despite stocks continued grinding higher this Thursday, and overall market sentiment improved further, the pair refuses to move from its comfort zone. The intraday technical picture has turned now neutral, as in the 1 hour chart, the price is between its 100 SMA, at 102.30, and the 200 SMA now at 103.60, both horizontal, whilst the technical indicators remain stuck around their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, a modest positive tone prevails, as technical indicators hold above their mid-lines. Still with the price below a sharply bearish 100 SMA at 104.30, the risk of a strong recovery remains limited, with the pair now waiting for a big catalyst, maybe US July's Payrolls next week, before being able to set a clearer directional tone.
Support levels: 102.50 102.00 101.60
Resistance levels: 102.90 103.30 103.60
AUD/USD Current price: 0.7433
The Australian dollar extended its advance up to 0.7448 against the greenback at the beginning of the day, but suffered a downward kneejerk that saw the pair trading as low as 0.7371 mid Asian session. Nevertheless buyers jumped back quickly, in pushing the price up to the critical resistance around 0.7450, the 38.2% retracement of this years' rally. Short term, the pair is hovering around a horizontal 20 SMA in its 1 hour chart, whilst the technical indicators are turning south around their mid-lines, lacking strength at the time being. In the 4 hours chart, technical readings remain in the positive side, but have lost upward strength, suggesting the pair may turn lower, particularly on a break below 0.7400.
Support levels: 0.7400 0.7370 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7450 0.7500 0.7540
