Why Trump is down to his last strike and has replaced his campaign manager
The path to the White House for Donald Trump was clear.
- He built a strong base with anti-immigrant and illegal immigration rhetoric
- He campaigned as an outsider and tapped into the disdain for Washington
- He's a successful businessman, or at least perceived as one
- His instincts regarding trade and defense deals were in tune with the public
Along with a knack for flair for the spotlight and a talent for insulting his rivals, he parlayed those four things into a resounding victory in the Republican primaries.
As he consolidated that victory and Democrats were lining up behind the ultimate Washington insider, he had a real chance to win the election.
I believed he would win.
He looked like his political instincts were incredible. I was wrong. It's looking more and more like his success was a fluke.
His path to the White House after securing the nomination was to tone down the xenophobia, instead he's doubled down.
Politically, that's insanity.
He's already locked down the anti-immigrant vote. Why is he pandering to that demographic? No matter how much they like him, white males only get one vote.
His path to victory was to sound more Presidential, to move to the middle and to continue to hammer on Washington corruption and trade deals.
Trump's weakness
In his speeches lately, Trump is wasting his words taking victory laps over Republicans and taking credit for small rhetorical victories. (You were right that radical Islamic terrorists would try to attack the US? Well no s**t)
Instead of trying to broaden his appeal, he's picking stupid fights with newspapers, journalists and judges.
Instead of a political genius, he's looking more like a guy with charisma, a great backstory and whose ideas happened to align with about 30% of US voters. That's impressive and perhaps another 25% of the population was open to voting for him but in the past two weeks he's done everything possible to lock down the 30% (that was already locked down) and alienate the 25%.
He's looking more like a deluded, defensive man who happened to be in the right place at the right time. His poll numbers are dropping.
In a sign that's he's hitting the panic button, today Trump severed ties with Corey Lewandowski, who was his chief campaign manager and the person behind the strategy of 'let Trump be Trump'. New strategists are likely going to try to make Trump be someone else, they need to hurry.
It's still a long campaign so I don't think he's dead but he's down to his final strike. The new team needs to completely drop the xenophobia and the petty personal vendettas to make it a race.
