US GDP forecasts trimmed after business inventories

14 June 2016, 19:30
Sherif Hasan
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Business inventories were slightly below estimates

Slow inventory building could see US Q1 GDP revised to +0.9%, according to JP Morgan. That's after a slightly downward revision to March inventories.

They also added a downside bias to their Q2 GDP forecast of 2.0% growth because April inventories grew just 0.1%.

Barclays went a step further and lowered its Q2 GDP forecast to 2.6% from 2.7% while trimming Q1 to 1.2% from 1.3%.

Retail sales reactions

Economic commentary since the release of the retail sales data has been positive.

From Capital Economics:

"While last month's retail sales gain was only slightly stronger than expectations, it is nevertheless reassuring because, following on the heels of the very weak gain in payroll employment, this is only the second 'A' list data release covering May. It suggests that activity in the broader economy is holding up well and, consequently, that the weakness in payrolls was probably just a temporary dip," they wrote after the release.
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