Short NOK/SEK: CPI Numbers Likely to Cause SEK to Outperform - Nomura
Short NOK/SEK: CPI Numbers Likely to Cause SEK to Outperform - Nomura
Research Team at Nomura, suggests that the Norges Bank meeting and
Swedish CPI data released this week present an opportunity for an RV
trade.
Key Quotes
“We expect Norges Bank
to remain on hold this week, but for communications to remain on the
dovish side. The data continue to point towards a cut in H2. Because
market expectations of a Norges Bank easing have declined recently, the
statement could be slightly more dovish than expectations.
Inflation
numbers for both Norway and Sweden are published this week. The Norway
number is unlikely to be a big market mover as the high Norwegian
inflation story is well known. In Sweden, inflation is recovering and
the skew of estimates in a Bloomberg survey show the possibility for an
upside surprise and typically has been a more sensitive market number of
the two.
Oil remains quite closely correlated with NOK/SEK, but
the Canadian wildfire story is already known to the market and the
Saudi news over the weekend too. So any surprises in oil markets this
week from the inventory and rig count data should be watched out for.
Short NOK/SEK at 0.9930 with a target of 0.97 and stop at 1.01.”
