BNP Paribas' commodity strategists view that the Doha meeting produced the most bearish outcome for oil prices amongst the various scenarios the market was looking at: no deal, no future calendar and a fight for market share that is still very much at the heart of producer policy.
"We think the 2.5% decline in WTI this morning can extend further and feed through into other linked commodity markets. We suspect it may be a challenging start of the week for CAD and AUD. BNP Paribas FX Positioning highlights that AUD (+19) and CAD (+5) are now the second and third largest long positions among G10 FX (see chart). AUD looks especially vulnerable. On Tuesday, RBA minutes may shed more light on the adjustment to the easing bias," BNPP argues.
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BNPP remains short AUDNZD* targeting 1.06* noting far less vulnerability on positioning from NZD and long EURAUD via options.