AUD: BS Shows Significant Improvement in Business Conditions and Confidence - NAB
Research Team at NAB, notes that the Australia’s NAB Business Survey
revealed a significant improvement in both business conditions and
confidence, suggesting the domestic business environment not only
remains favourable but appears to be strengthening further.
Key Quotes
“In
March, business conditions jumped to +12 points, its equal highest
value since early 2008, reflecting above-average conditions in most
industries. Service industries remain the best performers, although
construction also closed the gap in March, manufacturing is looking more
upbeat, and transport appears to be responding positively to lower fuel
prices – in contrast, mining conditions remain extremely weak and
retail was disappointing. All three components of conditions (trading,
profits and employment) improved during the month, with the employment
index particularly encouraging (the highest read since mid-2011), and
indicative of on going labour market strength.
Capacity
utilisation increased notably this month (and is now comfortably above
long run averages), pointing to further improvement in the underlying
health of the economy. This was in conjunction with a jump in business
confidence (back to long-run average levels), helping provide some
reassurance that the strength in business conditions can be sustained.
However,
less encouragingly, forward orders dipped back into marginal negative
territory – mainly due to lower mining, construction and retail orders.
The capital expenditure index also softened (although remained positive)
– mainly mining related. Across industries, positive business
confidence is broad based, with only the mining sector reporting
negative confidence.
The very strong outcome in this month’s NAB
Business Survey provides strong evidence that the non-mining recovery
has not been derailed by the financial market volatility and escalation
in global economic concerns earlier in the year. While the service
sector is still a major driver of the recovery, this survey suggests
that the improvements may be becoming more broad-based across the
economy – particularly in construction and manufacturing.
This
is an especially good result in the context of a downbeat global
economic outlook. Low interest rates and a more competitive currency
(even given recent strength) are expected to remain key drivers
domestically. Consequently, our outlook for the economy remains
unchanged – and with the non-mining recovery expected to progress
further, monetary policy is likely to remain on hold for an extended
period. However, recent statements from the RBA reinforced the point
that if the non mining sector were to show any signs of weakening, lower
inflation and AUD strength has increased the RBA’s willingness to cut
rates.”
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