EUR/USD Forecast: Central Banks Don't Matter, What Next?

EUR/USD Forecast: Central Banks Don't Matter, What Next?

9 April 2016, 18:53
Vasilii Apostolidi
A choppy trading week comes to an end, with EUR/USD finishing at the starting point but leaving fresh year-to-date highs marked.

Following last Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, most of the attention was on the FOMC minutes, which showed some members were ready to tighten policy further while others wanted to take a cautious stance. Overall, FOMC minutes emphasized the decision will be live and will remains data-dependant.

The European Central Bank also published March meeting mites that revealed the Governing Council discussed cutting rates even further.

However, currencies overall ignored central banks and focused on mood swings and equities moves. Despite intraday volatility and a new high of 1.1453, EUR/USD is on track to close the week unchanged around the 1.1400 level. 

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Next week, important figures for consumption and inflation will be released in the US. On Wednesday retail sales data is due while consumer price index will be published for both Eurozone and US on Thursday.

EUR/USD technical view

The pair traded all week sideways around 1.1385 and it was about to finish the week unchanged after the strong rally of the previous week. The bias continues to favor the euro in many time frames, including the weekly chart with the 20-SMA turning to the upside. The rally stopped slightly below the 1.1450 - 1.1500 area, that is a key resistance. 

The euro could in the coming days test the mentioned area and even trade higher. Only a significant close above 1.1480, would open the doors for further gains, with a possible target around 1.1700 and then 1.1820. 

On the opposite direction, if it fails to break higher or if it receives another rejection from above 1.1475, a consolidation scenario would be favored. At 1.1320 we can find the first relevant support; below here the pair could drop toward the 20-day SMA, that stands at 1.1270, if price drops further, the strong support around 1.1050 - 1.1100 would be exposed. 

Overall the euro keeps a bullish perspective, but it has been consolidating during the last six days, showing signals of exhaustion but at the same time, holding above key levels. Next week, the consolidation is likely to be challenged. 
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