There is a 99.22% Chance that you will win this trade!

2 April 2016, 11:42
Muhammad Elbermawi
2
252
If I told you that there is a 99.22% probability that you can win the next trade on Dow Jones Industrial would you believe me!

In trading the Theory of Runs  answer a statistical question that ask about the probability to find another black (OR white) candle after a series of them.

The idea is simple, If the last candlestick on the chart was white so what is probability of the next candlestick to be white too ?

According to the Theory of Runs  the answer is 50%.

But if you have two consecutive white candlesticks the answer will be 25% ( = 100 * [0.5*0.5] ).

Also,if you have three consecutive white candlesticks the answer will be 12.5% ( = 100 * [0.5*0.5*0.5] ).

Now if you know that Dow Jones Index had seven consecutive white weekly candlesticks the answer will be 0.78% ( = 100 * [0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5] ).

By another words the probability to have a black candlestick or a falling week will be 99.22% !

good luck for all of you

MB


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