Research Team at TDS, suggests that the SARB rate meeting is a very close call and they are inclined towards a pause at 6.75%, but +25bp is possible.
Key Quotes
“Reflecting our uncertainty, Bloomberg is almost evenly split with a small majority expecting no change. Since the Jan MPC there has been mixed news on the inflation front. Jan headline and core CPI surprised to the upside.
Also oil prices in rand terms are + 17%. On the other hand, Eskom tariff increases for 2016/17 are less than the SARB had originally assumed in its forecasts. The rand has strengthened since the last MPC meeting, but concerns over the past few days that Finance Minister Gordhan might have to step down have caused it to give up a big part of those gains. Meanwhile, the economy remains weak.
The voting at the Jan MPC meeting was close with three members voting for 50 bps, two for 25 bps, and one voting for no change. The SARB’s revised inflation forecasts will be crucial in determining their action at today’s meeting. If they do not hike we think the SARB will remain in hiking mode and expect a total of +50bp in the coming months.”
