Bank of Canada will probably leave interest rates unchanged next week

The Loonie tumbled more than 12% against the USD from the middle of October 2015 through the middle of January 2016 in a more or less one-way move. Import prices are rising on the back of the weaker currency, thus also sending consumer prices higher. Inflation has thus increased markedly since spring 2015 and, at 2%, is now trading exactly at the BoC's target level.

The BoC is likely to have a closer look at the government's 2016 budget plan due to be released on 22 March. A budget which delivers significant fiscal stimulus to boost growth should be CAD-supportive and further reduces scope for BoC rate cuts.

"Against this backdrop, the BoC will probably leave interest rates unchanged next week. However, it is likely to point to numerous downside risks such as weaker US demand and a renewed drop in oil prices, thus for now leaving the door open for further interest rate cuts." notes Commerzbank in a report.