First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
■ if we talk about the forecast for EUR/USD, it can be considered fully true. As expected, implementing the month scenario, the pair first tried to break the support of 1.0800, and after an unsuccessful attempt, passed to the week scenario - as predicted by most experts, the pair strayed upwards, reaching on Friday the height of 1.1043, basing on the news from the USA;
■ with regard to GBP/USD, those 50% of the experts who voted for the growth of the pair were right. However, graphical analysis on H1, which had supported them, underestimated the power of "bulls" - the pair quickly turned the resistance at 1.3910 into support, having rebounded from which it reached the 1.4248 resistance by the end of the week;
■ USD/JPY. "In an effort to predict the behaviour of this pair - we had written - both experts and indicators took a relatively neutral position ", and were right - the pair finished the week exactly at the same level as at the beginning. With a little tolerance, graphical analysis was also right, having determined the boundaries of the side channel as the 112.55 and 114.50;
■ but as for the future of USD/CHF, experts suggested that reaching the key level of 1.0000, the pair had to fight off down to the level of 0.9800. Graphical analysis agreed with this, adding that the support could be 100 points higher, and in this case, it was right - having gone down the pair did not manage to fall below the resistance zone of 0.9880 ÷ 0.9910.
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Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
■ giving the forecast for EUR/USD, this time the experts have been surprisingly unanimous. The overwhelming majority (65%) of them voted for a downtrend both on a weekly and on a monthly interval. Graphical analysis on H1 and H4 agrees with them, clarifying that the pair must first descend into the 1.0910 zone, after which it can fight back to the current level of 1.1010 and go to a sideways trend for a while. If we look at the readings of graphical analysis and indicators on the D1, the vibrations here seem larger - a fall to the level of 1.0710 and a rise to the February highs - 1.1340;
■ a similar unanimity of experts can be seen when they speak of the future of GBP/USD - on weekly and monthly intervals, 60% of them vote for the pair fall, 30% for a sideways trend and only 10% for its growth. As for indicators, it is clear that the situation is different: on the H1 100% of them point out an increase, on H4, they are 83%, and on D1, they are only 50%. As for the graphical analysis, it draws a side channel in the range of 1.4070 ÷ 1.4375, at that, in the beginning the pair may fluctuate in a more narrow range - from 1.4150 to 1.4250;
■ but with regard to the future of USD/JPY, both indicators on all time frames and graphical analysis on H4 indicate to continuation of a sideways trend within the range of 113.00 ÷ 114.50 in the beginning of the week. As for the analysts, there are only about 20% of those who support a horizontal line of conduct. The overwhelming majority believes that the pair must go up in an effort to achieve values in the area of 116.00 ÷ 116.50, and only 1 expert expects another fall of the pair to the support of 111.00;
■ and the last pair of our review - USD/CHF. Here, the experts show their character, and the majority (55%) continue to insist that the pair still has to reach the 0.9800 support. After that, it should turn to the north and, finally breaking the defensive line of 1.0000, within a month it should return to the area of 1.0100 ÷ 1.0200. Graphical analysis agrees with this in general, however, with an adjustment for the fact that the support is 50 points higher - at the level of 0.9850.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
