| 29 January 2016, Time of Writing: 09:00 am |
Trader Daily Market Update |
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| Major Calendar News |
| Time (GMT) | Name | Country | Vol. | Prev. | Cons. | Sentiment |
|---|
| 08:00 | Spanish Flash CPI y/y | EUR | Med. | 0.0% | 0.1% | Negative | | 08:00 | Spanish Flash GDP q/q | EUR | Med. | 0.8% | 0.8% | Neutral | | 09:00 | M3 Money Supply y/y | EUR | Med. | 5.1% | 5.2% | Neutral | | 10:00 | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | EUR | High | 0.2% | 0.4% | Negative | | 10:00 | Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | EUR | Med. | 0.9% | 0.9% | Negative | | 13:30 | Advanced GDP q/q | USD | High | 2.0% | 0.8% | Negative | | 13:30 | Employment Cost Index q/q | USD | Med. | 0.6% | 0.6% | Neutral | | 13:30 | GDP m/m | CAD | High | 0.0% | 0.3% | Negative | | 14:45 | Chicago PMI | USD | Med. | 42.9 | 45.4 | Negative | | 15:00 | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | USD | Med. | 93.3 | 93.1 | Neutral |
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| Vol.: Volatility; Prev.: Previous; Cons.: Consensus |
| Key Support/Resistance Levels |
| H4 | R2 | R1 | Pivot | S1 | S2 |
|---|
| EURUSD | 1.1021 | 1.0977 | 1.0923 | 1.0880 | 1.0826 | | GBPUSD | 1.4502 | 1.4430 | 1.4332 | 1.4260 | 1.4165 | | USDJPY | 122.86 | 121.18 | 120.08 | 118.98 | 118.30 | | AUDUSD | 0.7183 | 0.7132 | 0.7076 | 0.7025 | 0.6969 | | USDCAD | 1.4210 | 1.4122 | 1.4035 | 1.3947 | 1.3860 |
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| Latest News |
Overnight, the Bank of Japan introduced negative interest rates on certain deposits above a given threshold while maintaining a pledge to increase its quantitative easing program in the future if necessary in addition to cutting interest rates further into negative territory. This caused a drastic plunge in the Yen, lifting USDJPY 2.5% past 121.40, though it is currently trading at 120.65 after a sizable retracement. Elsewhere, headlines spurred major volatility in oil markets yesterday, which were up by 7% at one point before closing the day up roughly 4%, as OPEC members expressed their willingness to cut oil production as long as they can get cooperation from non-OPEC participants as well. As a result USDCAD fell, breaking below the 1.40 handle in early trading thus far as oil prices continue to climb. The economic calendar is stacked towards the afternoon session when both Canada and the US will publish their respective GDP figures for the fourth quarter. The US’ economy is forecasted to have slowed to a meagre 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, far below third quarter’s growth of 2%. The main motives behind this lacklustre data remains falling energy prices which have cut CAPEX investments and a deteriorating manufacturing sector. Lastly, investors should be aware that near the opening on Monday (Feb. 1), Chinese officials will publish both the official and Caixin manufacturing data. |
| Daily Technical Analysis |
| | Summary: | Trend: | Momentum: | Daily Target: | Volatility (14D): |
|---|
| EURUSD | NEUTRAL | SIDEWAYS | NEUTRAL | 1.0825 - 1.0980 | 87 Pips | | GBPUSD | BUY | SIDEWAYS | BUY | 1.4445 | 132 Pips | | USDJPY | NEUTRAL | BUY | OVERBOUGHT | 118.30 - 122.85 | 129 Pips | | AUDUSD | BUY | BUY | BUY | 0.7175 | 98 Pips | | USDCAD | SELL | SELL | SELL | 1.3860 | 166 Pips |
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| Daily Technical Analysis is conducted using proprietary technology based on advanced methods of time-series analysis and custom build technical indicators. Detailed quantitative analysis of the market state on different time frames let us accurately evaluate current Trend and Momentum. Going further we deduce the daily target from the multiple factors such as long and short term momentum, different volatility measures, mode of market behaviour and other characteristics. For a ranged market we will show a range instead of a single number. |
| Daily Forecasts |
| | Spot Price* | Last Update | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month |
|---|
| EURUSD | 1.0928 | 27/01/2016 | 1.0825 | 1.08 | 1.07 | | GBPUSD | 1.4356 | 27/01/2016 | 1.4405 | 1.43 | 1.44 | | USDJPY | 120.03 | 27/01/2016 | 122.85 | 121 | 123 | | AUDUSD | 0.7100 | 27/01/2016 | 0.7180 | 0.69 | 0.69 | | USDCAD | 1.4022 | 27/01/2016 | 1.3860 | 1.40 | 1.41 |
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*spot prices as of 07:00GMT Daily Forecasts consists of both technical and fundamental analysis as well as a review of open sources from major FX contributors. |
