Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (December 21 - 25, 2015)
Here’s the market outlook for this week: Content courtesy of Tallinex Limited (https://www.tallinex.com)
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Although the dominant bias on this pair is bullish, it is now seriously threatened. After testing the resistance line at 1.1050, price went down roughly 250 pips - almost reaching the support line at 1.0800. Based on bearish expectations for EUR pairs for the remainder of this month, it is likely that EURUSD will drop another 100 pips this week. If that happens, the bias will turn bearish.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
After bottoming at the support level of 0.9800, USDCHF has been making noticeable bullish attempts in the context of a downtrend. Price reached the resistance level at 0.9950 on Thursday, and then consolidated through to the end of the week. At this point, direction will be determined by what happens to EUR, as there are mixed signals on all USD pairs – it will be weak against some currencies and strong against others.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The price movement last week has resulted in a “sell’’ signal for this pair, which is in line with our bearish expectation for GBP pairs. Cable went south some 300 pips to test the accumulation territory at 1.4900. It has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern, and suggests that southerly movement will continue for the rest of this month. Any rallies should therefore be approached as short-selling opportunities.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This volatile instrument swung wildly last week. Price tested the demand level at 120.50, and then rose sharply to reach the supply level at 123.50 - a movement of 300 pips. Price then fell 200 pips on Friday due to fundamental events which strengthened the Yen. The current bias on USD/JPY is bearish, and should be respected for the time being.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This market traded sideways from Monday to Thursday, followed by a bearish breakout on Friday. Weakness in this market, coupled with an inability to trend higher, has made the outlook bearish. As EUR weakens further, EUR/JPY should trend further south, and serious weakening of the Yen is needed before this bearish movement can be reversed.
I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:
“Quality of trades matter, but a trading career does not depend on one trade, it is rather the sum of all trades. Acknowledging that a few losing trades cannot hurt me released me from anxious trading.” - Christiaan van der Meer
Azeez Mustapha
Currency Analyst
Tallinex Limited
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