The market is not going to die quietly in terms activity - forecast for 2016

The market is not going to die quietly in terms activity - forecast for 2016

3 December 2015, 21:14
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Many analytics and int'l financial institutions published their forecasts related to US Dollar and emerging currency market in 2016. They all stated that US dollar will get stronger and the other currencies will stay weak:

  • JPMorgan consideres that this tendency will be the main one in the first half of the next year for example when Federal Reserve rate was already rised with the further easing by ECB.
  • Nomura stated that Bank of Japan easing expectation is very high but it will still remain to be dovish.
  • BNP Paribas predicts the dollar will be rising against JPY.

Anyway, as we see from the chart above - the dollar index is on eight month high for now by breaking 100.31 resistance to above. And the bullish trend will be continuing in 2016 just for sure. And the other currencies will remain to be more bearish in 2016, for example:

  • EUR/USD. Strong bearish market condition, and it is very unlikely for the price to be reversed to the bullish in 2016: the reversal resistance level is located somewhere around 1.22/1.23.
  • GBP/USD. Global ranging market condition. But this pair is moved within reversal s/r levels to be ready to go for bearish or the bullish depends on the fundamental news events for example.
  • USD/JPY. Bullish. Once the price breaks 125.85 so we may consider the movement for this pair to be the strong bullish.
  • AUD/USD. Bearish. If the price breaks 0.6907 support level to below so we may see good bearish breakdown.
  • NZD/USD. Bearish. There are two scenarios for the price movement for 2016: strong bearish or ranging bearish.

Some analytics mentioned that strong dollar is not always good (and may be - not good at all). By the way, as Societe Generale said - the market is not going to die quietly in terms activity.



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