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EUR/USD: AB=CD pattern was formed together with the bearish Retracement for direction

16 October 2015, 06:11

Sergey Golubev

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Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken made a technical forecast for EUR/USD pair related to intra-day and day basis:

"The buyers continued to be in control pushing prices up close to the 1.15 handle. With 1.1476 achieved also the ideal target point for a three wave upside correction (from the early Sept low point), a-b-c, has been fulfilled. So if the past month and a half is a corrective climb, well then it should end right here and now."
"We are keeping a close eye on 1.1461 as its break kicks off an hourly sell signal and confirming an hourly RSI bear divergence."

Thus, SEB is estimating the two key levels for this pair: 1.14 in intra-day and 1.15 on long term situation. Anyway, the bearish AB=CD pattern was formed on W1 timeframe together with the bearish retracement so we can expect more bearish situation with this pair in the few coming weeks for example.

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Sergey Golubev 2015.10.16 07:41 #1

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.10.16 09:35

3 reasons to sell EUR/USD - BNP Paribas (based on efxnews article)

BNP Paribas suggested to make a short with EUR/USD with 1.0900 target and 1.1630 stop loss, and it is based on 3 fundamental reasons:

"Further risk-on – Eurozone capital outflows resume and markets start to reprice Fed hikes = EURUSD lower."
"Stable risk – Without a strong impulse from risk sentiment, the eurozone’s trade surplus is probably still putting some natural upward pressure on EURUSD. But with valuations already expensive, EUR funding should be more attractive = no clear signal for EURUSD."
"Return of risk-off – EURUSD continues to rally, which forces the ECB to step up dovish rhetoric and ultimately ease policy = EURUSD first higher, then lower."