Fundamental Forecast - 'What Will Draghi Say?' - Citibank

Fundamental Forecast - 'What Will Draghi Say?' - Citibank

16 July 2015, 03:11
Sergey Golubev
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Citibank provided some forecasts concerning fundamental news events on Thursday related to ECB meeting and potential EUR reaction. Citi described it on 4 points to be mention:

  1. "European data has improved, but undeniably the risks to Europe have increased".
    Citi analytics see a little option for Draghi for the situation improvement to reduce the risk.
  2. "Growth has trudged along in Europe since the last ECB meeting. Broadly, there has been better data in France, Spain and Italy, with some weakening in Germany...Draghi is likely to remain cautious and given the decline in oil, there is some potential for a mildly more dovish message on inflation," Citi adds.
  3. "We bias a weaker EUR through the press conference."
  4. "Thursday’s ECB is going to be dependent to a large extent on the Greek parliamentary vote and Eurogroup bridge financing decisions."

Citi told that the market reaction will trump the expectation so the direction for EUR/USD will remain the same one.


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