Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (June 22 - 26, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
EURUSD first consolidated last week; then broke upwards - closing above the support line at 1.1300. The bias is still bullish, so price could test the resistance lines at 1.1450 and 1.1500, but failure to do this will likely lead to a drop in price. Aside from the obvious issues surrounding Greece, the condition of the US Dollar will be the greatest determinant of movement in EURUSD for the rest of this month. Only significant weakness in USD is able to help EURUSD maintain its current bullish bias.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair was able to break below the resistance level at 0.9250 (which bears were unable to breach in the first half of June), and has since also moved below the 0.9200 resistance level. The support level at 0.9150 was tested last week and may be tested again - especially with more selling pressure in the market, so a breach of that level is possible.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
GBP is really strong - the evidence is clear on most GBP pairs. Cable moved upwards by 350 pips last week (assisted by comments from the Fed's Janet Yellen), and by 650 pips this month. The distribution territory at 1.5900 is currently being besieged, and may end up being smashed by the bulls. Another possible target is the distribution territory at 1.5950. However, Cable must now be approached with caution because the possibility of this pair becoming weak before the end of this month is still very high.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This market initially moved sideways last week until the false bullish breakout on Wednesday (the 17th) that pushed price upwards by 100 pips before the bears appeared and forced it lower. Price is now close to the demand level at 122.50, which may be breached at any time as this market is expected to trend lower during July 2015. Any rallies in the short-term could therefore be good selling opportunities.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
There was not much movement in EURJPY last week. The outlook remains bullish, but is not very strong, so any movement below the demand zone at 138.00 will mean a change in outlook, leading to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:

“My opinion is that traders who have long been around and keep learning, will establish themselves automatically.” - Dr. Brett N. Steenbarger

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