As usual, let us start with a few words regarding last week’s forecast. And so:
- the forecast for the EUR/USD pair for the previous five days was based on the assumption of a monthly sideways trend in the corridor of 1.1050÷1.1350 with Pivot Points on the line of 1.1260. However, the possibility of a rise of the pair at the start of the week was not excluded. Until Wednesday, the pair followed the forecast exactly, but then, due to the news from the US Federal Reserve, it jumped upwards, breaking through the level of resistance of 1.1350. Then, truth be told, the pair quickly changed its mind and returned to the specified corridor and finished the weak near the corridor’s upper boundary;
- regarding the future of the GBP/USD pair analysts and indicators unambiguously predicted its growth to the level of 1.5680. Before that, graphical analysis insisted that the pair should fall to the level of support in the zone of 1.5440. This is, actually, what happened – on Monday the pair fell to 1.5487, and then went upwards, reaching by Wednesday the specified upper boundary. But then came the news first from England and then from the USA, which started to actively push the “Brit” even higher, as a result of which it managed to reach the level of last year’s December;
- as for the USD/JPY pair, despite the statements from across the ocean, it managed to remain in the specified corridor of 122.45÷125.00 with Pivot Points on the level of 123.50, fulfilling the forecast by 100%;
- in the fight between analysts and indicators regarding the future of USD/CHF the latter turned out to be right, supported by graphical analysis. As predicted, the pair first went upwards and then toppled down, reaching the support at 0.9250. Then, due to the very same news from the USA, it decisively broke through it, after which support turned into the upper boundary for a sideways trend.
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Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalising the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- when making a forecast for the EUR/USD pair, the absolute majority of experts lean towards the pair remaining in the monthly sideways trend and so must fall to its bottom boundary in the zone of 1.1200 and even further – to 1.1160. Graphical analysis also agrees with this. As for indicators, they are definitely (74%) against all of the above. Most probably, the movements of the pair at the start of the week will show us to which of the forecasts we should give our preference.
- and now the GBP/USD pair. As for the indicators, there are no doubts whatsoever – upwards and only upwards. But analysts are again at a loss: ↑ - 33%, → - 12%, ↓ - 55%. The arbitrator in the form of graphical analysis insists on a sideways trend and the fall of the pair to the values of the beginning of May. The levels of support will be in the zones of 1.5800 and 1.5740;
- for the USD/JPY pair the opinions of most experts (60%), indicators (52%) and even graphical analysis coincide – they all say that the pair should first fall to the zone of 121.50÷122.00, and then… then their opinions diverge. Even within graphical analysis, there exists a certain antagonism – on the H4 timeframe a rebound upwards and the location of the pair in the sideways corridor of 122.00÷124.50 is clearly seen. But D1 pulls the pair further downwards to support at 120.00, and only reaching this zone can the pair rebound and rise even higher than 126.00.
- all the forecasts of the experts regarding the USD/CHF pair continue to spin around the line of 0.9250. At first, it was a line of support, then of resistance, and now experts are giving it the role of Pivot Points. Yet indicators propose to have Pivot Points slightly lower – in the zone of 0.9180÷0.9200. But both cases talk about a sideways trend, only in the former its boundaries are in the range of 0.9080÷0.9390, and in the latter the upper resistance will take place in the zone of 0.9250.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
