Review FxTaTrader Weekly Strategy Wk02 / Sun. 11-Jan-2015

11 January 2015, 16:32
Forex Technical Analyst Trader
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There will be new articles based on the Monthly strategy and the evaluation of the strategy will also be discussed.

For this reason some pages on the website have been updated.
The following pages have been updated:
FxTaTrader Strategy
FxTaTrader Forex Ranking & Rating list
Stop loss settings

In this article I will provide my view on the EUR/NZD and the AUD/USD. These are the pairs that I am currently interested in or was interested in last week for trading with the FxTaTrader strategy. I will pick one to analyse in more detail from the pairs that have not been discussed yet recently.

- All trades are based on specific rules according to the strategy.
- For the performance and closed positions click here.

This article will provide:

  • The weekly currency chart for the analyzed pair.
  • The weekly(decision) TA chart for the analyzed pair.
  • A Technical analysis for the analyzed pair of the Monthly, Weekly and Daily chart.
  • Possible positions for the coming week and positions taken.

According to the TA Charts, the "Currency score" and the "Ranking & Rating list" all the pairs in the Top 10 of the "Ranking & Rating list" are good to trade but the following pairs are not (yet) qualified according to the FxTaTrader Strategy rules:
  • The EUR/NZD, NZD/CHF NZD/CAD, GBP/NZD. These are all far from the outside Bollinger Band and a good pull back has to take place to make them interesting again for taking positions. 
  • The EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD are on a slightly distance of the outside Bollinger Band. When the trading week starts the Bollinger Band will show its new value which will be in the direction of the trend and most probably the mentioned pairs will then come isnside the Bollinger Band. 
  • The GBP/NZD is a pair with 2 stronger currencies with a currency score difference of only 3. See the Currency score article of this weekend Forex Weekly Currency Score Wk 02 for more information. 
There are some rules for taking positions according to the FxTaTrader Strategy. The strategy can open multiple positions of a currency pair but each currency may only be present once in the same direction in the pairs chosen for trading. It means that not all the possible positions of this coming week can be opened. For more information see FxTaTrader Hybrid Grid Strategy.

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Open/pending positions of last week

EUR/NZD

This pair will be analyzed briefly, for more information read the article Weekly Review Strategy Wk01 where the pair was tipped for going short. Pending orders were placed but none have been opened during the week. In the first days of the week the pair started to rise very fast intraday. Since this was the week where market gets into full liquidity I was in doubt if my view on this pair could be wrong. I wanted a confirmation of my view by seeing the pair going through its lows of the last days around 1,5475. This confirmation came but the pair tumbled so much that it came outside the Weekly Bollinger Band. The best way to trade the pair was to wait for the pull back but the pair continued to tumble and made a movement this week from high to low of 635 pips while the Weekly ATR was 287 at the beginning of the week. This is exceptional and there should have been a pull back but the market is always right so the pull back will probably happen next week.

The orders have been placed also on the Monthly strategy which is being evaluated. Since this is a longer term strategy with a larger stop loss I was not too much concerned on the lower liquidity and the orders were opened immediately on Monday. Profit of 1/2 Monthly ATR was made there of 243 pips on 2 orders and 2 more orders are open which will be closed based on a trailing stop. See the FxTaTrader Evaluation chart on the Performance page for more information. An article of the monthly strategy will be published next weekend on Sunday.

For the Weekly strategy I will be waiting for the possible pull back next week.
  • In the weekly chart the Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions.
  • The MACD is in negative territory and gaining strength.
  • The Parabolic SAR is short showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.
Ranking and rating list Week 02
Rank: 1
Rating: - - -

Total outlook: Down

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Open/pending positions of last week

AUD/USD

This pair will be analyzed in detail. The pair is currently having a pull back and this offers an opportunity for taking short positions. The pull back is strong and the second and last short position has been opened. The stop loss is placed at 0,8235 being 20 pips above the latest high.
  • As can be seen in the Currency Score chart in my previous article of this weekend Forex Weekly Currency Score Wk 02, the AUD is having a score of 6 and the USD a score of 7. With a Currency score difference of only 1 the pair looks fragile and it may go in any direction. However, from a longer term view the AUD is a weaker currency and the USD a stronger currency. Since a pull back is now taking place the AUD will probably weaken again next week.
  • The position in the Ranking and Rating list in the last weeks also shows that the pair is attractive for taking short positions. However, in the current list of this weekend Forex Ranking & Rating Wk 02 the pair has a low rank of 26 and a flat rating "=". This is caused by the pull back and if the pair does not go through the latest high in a convincing manner the downtrend will probably resume. The pair will then come back in the Ranking and Rating list at the levels where it was before being most of the time in the Top 10.
  • The TA charts are all looking reasonable to strong for going short except for the 4 hour chart, this chart looks Bullish. 
Ranking and rating list Week 02
Rank: 26
Rating: =

Weekly Currency score: Down
Based on the currency score the pair looked interesting in the last 3 months. The USD is a stronger currency currency from a longer term view and currently having a currency score of 7. The AUD is a weaker currency from a longer term view but currently having a score of 6. This seems as an opportunity to go short on pull back. Based solely on this information the pair does look interesting for going short in the coming week.

Wk02 11-Jan-2015 FxTaTrader.com Forex AUDUSD Currency Score


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Monthly chart: Down
  • On the monthly(context) chart the indicators are looking strong for going short.
  • The Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions except for the Chikou-Span which is in the cloud instead of being below of it.
  • The MACD is in negative area and gaining strength.
  • The Parabolic SAR is short and showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.
  • Since the monthly chart is used to get the context how that pair is developing for the long term the indicators are looking fine because they are showing strength in the current downtrend.

Weekly chart: Down
  • On the weekly(decision) chart the indicators are looking strong for going short.
  • The Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions.
  • The MACD is in negative area gaining strength.
  • The Parabolic SAR is short and showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.

Daily chart: Down
  • On the daily(timing) chart the indicators are looking reasonable for going short.
  • The Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions.
  • The MACD is in negative area but consolidating.
  • The Parabolic SAR is long but showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.
Total outlook: Down

FxTaTrader.com AUDUSD Weekly Wk02 11-Jan-2015

AUD/USD Weekly chart


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Although the explanation may seem simple and clear there is always risk involved. I added a disclaimer to my blog for this purpose. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week and don't forget to check my weekly Forex "Ranking and Rating list" and the "Currency Score".

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DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.
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