Trading the News: USD Retail Sales to Increase for Sixth Time in 2014

Trading the News: USD Retail Sales to Increase for Sixth Time in 2014

12 September 2014, 11:14
Sergey Golubev
What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

A marked picked up in private sector consumption may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later, and we may see a growing number of central bank officials adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy as the board looks to conclude its asset-purchase program at the October 29 meeting.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Retail Sales Climb 0.6% or Greater
  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: Household Consumption Disappoints
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Release

  • Will continue to favor downside targets as RSI holds in oversold territory & retains bearish momentum.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3220 (50.0% retracement) to 1.3230 (61.8% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.2800 pivot to 1.2810 (61.8% expansion)
Impact that the U.S. Retail Sales report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month

Period Data Released Estimate Actual Pips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
JUL 2014 8/13/2014 12:30 GMT 0.2% 0.0% +27 +3
July 2014 U.S. Advance Retail Sales
EURUSD M5 : 50 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event

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