The main event today will certainly be the ECB meeting and there remains a certain intrigue.
EUROUSD behavior in recent days clearly shows that market participants expect the ECB's clear and concise rhetoric pigeon (specific actions should not wait).
Couple EUROUSD fell below 0.23 today and is at the lowest level since August 2012.
Of course, if the link to the purchase of sovereign assets will be included in a statement of the ECB, it will be a clear signal that the majority of the ECB is ready to to start buying government bonds sooner rather than later.
Generally speaking, I think this is unlikely. But in a statement the ECB may be included in one form or another replica of the last performances of Mario Draghi "need to return inflation to the target level without delay" or arguments about the dangers of "extremely low inflation expectations."
This is evidence that the majority of the Governing Council of the ECB has already lost patience and will not tolerate low inflation figures.
In this regard, and new projections of macroeconomic forecasts apparatus ECB will give food for thought. They can be as reduced forecasts for inflation (negative for EURO), and the increase in forecasts for economic growth in the euro area (positive for EURO) due to lower oil prices.
I think that the danger of reducing inflation should dominate in the statement of the ECB, the ECB forecasts and Mario Draghi speech during a press conference. This will give rise to a decrease in the area of EURO 1.22, where it is determined by local bottom EUROUSD.McAuley NICHOLAS LUDANOV
