Luck or Skill Trade Analyzer Pro MT4

Find where you win and where you leak. Luck or Skill Pro puts your closed trades next to 1,000 random traders on the same symbols, direction, lot size and hold time, then runs the same test on every part of your trading: symbols, days, hours, hold times, after-loss trades, bigger sizes and each EA.

One verdict for the whole account, and a SKILL or LEAK tag for each group, so you know what to keep and what to stop. Read-only: it never trades.

Free version | MT5 version | All my tools

The verdict

• SKILL (you beat 95% or more of the random traders), LEANING SKILL (80-95%), TOO CLOSE TO CALL, or RANDOM ENTRIES DID BETTER
• Your result next to the random traders' median and the range 90% of them ended in
• A chart of all 1,000 random traders with YOU marked on it
• Your share of winning trades next to theirs

The pages (one click each)

• Findings: the groups that did clearly worse (LEAK) or clearly better (SKILL) than random entries, worst first
• Symbols: every symbol you traded
• Time: each day of the week and each 4-hour block of server time
• Habits: buys and sells; held under 5 minutes, 5-60 minutes, 1-24 hours, over a day; opened within an hour after a loss or a win; sizes over 1.5 x your usual size on that symbol; the 4th and later trade of a day; opened while 2 or more other trades were open
• Source: manual trades and each EA by magic number

Each row shows the trades, your result, what random entries would have made on the same trades, and a tag:

• SKILL / LEAK: a gap that luck alone produces less than 1 time in 100
• skill? / leak?: less than 1 time in 20 - with many groups a few of these can be luck, so trust SKILL and LEAK more
• luck: inside what random entries do; few: under 10 trades

How the random traders are made

For every closed trade, 100 random twins: same symbol, same buy or sell, same lot size, same holding time, same commission and a spread, but opened at a random moment of the period you traded that symbol. Each random trader takes one twin of each of your trades.

Your direction and size stay the same, so a trend doesn't count as skill: if you only bought gold while it was rising, the random traders bought it too. The same history always gives the same answer.

Filters

• Only trades opened from a date
• Only one magic number (check one EA), or 0 for your manual trades only
• Only some symbols (XAUUSD also finds XAUUSD.s, XAUUSDm and other broker suffixes)

CSV report

• One click saves the verdict, every group and every trade with its random twins' average (MQL4\Files) - open it in Excel

Who it is for

• Manual traders: find the hours, symbols and habits that cost you
• EA users: check each EA on the account by its magic number
• Signal and copy-trading subscribers: check the trades your account received
• Prop-firm traders: know if your edge is real before you pay for the next challenge

How to use it

• Attach Luck or Skill Pro to any chart (Indicators). It reads the whole account, not only that symbol
• MetaTrader 4 reads the trades the History tab shows: right-click the History tab and choose All History
• The first time, it loads the price history of every symbol you traded (a few seconds each)
• It counts again by itself when a trade closes; the Recalc button does it on demand
• 30 closed trades are needed for a verdict; 100 or more make it much more reliable

Trying it first

The Strategy Tester has no account history, so the demo download shows how it works on sample trades of an EMA 20/50 crossover on the test chart. To see the verdict on your own trades, use the free Luck or Skill - it gives the same verdict, without the pages.

Good to know

• Swaps are left out on both sides (they depend on the nights you held, not on your entries)
• MetaTrader 4 keeps no spreads in its price history, so the indicator remembers the spread it sees while prices are moving. Until it has seen one (for example at the weekend), the random traders pay no spread - that can only make you look worse, never better - and it counts again by itself once prices move
• On MetaTrader 4 a partial close makes a new ticket, so each part counts as its own trade
• Trades on symbols your broker has no price history for are left out and counted on the panel
• A trade shorter than one candle of the loaded history is compared with part of that candle's move
• The verdict looks back: it says what your trades did, not what they will do

Settings

• Date, magic number and symbol filters
• Newest closed trades to check (default 5,000)
• Random entry times per trade (100) and random traders (1,000)
• Corner, distance from the edges, font size

Questions?

Message me on MQL5 - I answer every message.

If it helped you, a short review on this page helps other traders find it.

Support: if something doesn't work as expected, send me a private message first. I answer every message and fix problems quickly.