ICT Market Structure Honest Stats MT4
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ICT market structure from any timeframe - HH, HL, LH, LL, every BOS and CHoCH, with alerts - and a table that measures how often price really followed each break on your chart.
ICT Market Structure Honest Stats labels every swing high and low, draws each break of structure (BOS) and change of character (CHoCH), shows the levels the next break needs, alerts you the moment a new break forms, and measures on your chart's own history how often price went on in the break's direction compared with random bars. Part of the Honest Stats series.
MT5 version | Order Blocks MT4 | Free: FVG Honest Stats | Free: Liquidity Levels | Free: SMT Divergence | Free: Killzones
What it draws
- Swing high: the highest candle of its neighbourhood (5 candles on each side by default). Swing low: the lowest
- Labels: HH (higher high), LH (lower high), HL (higher low), LL (lower low)
- BOS (break of structure): a candle closes beyond the last swing in the direction of the trend - the trend goes on. Dashed line from the swing to the breaking candle
- CHoCH (change of character): a candle closes beyond the last swing AGAINST the trend - the structure turns. Solid line
- Dotted lines at the current swing high and swing low: the levels the next BOS or CHoCH needs
- Bullish in green, bearish in red; colours, label size and how many breaks are shown are yours to set
- Hover over a line or a label to see its timeframe, time and price
Higher-timeframe structure
Set "Timeframe of the structure" to H1, H4 or D1 and the higher-timeframe swings and breaks appear on your M5 or M15 chart. The stats table then tests that timeframe too.
Alerts
- New CHoCH (on by default) and new BOS (optional)
- The alert says what broke and at which price
- Popup, sound, push to the MetaTrader phone app, email - switch each on or off
- Only closed candles count, so an alert never disappears again
The honest stats table
The table uses every closed bar loaded on the chart (or on the structure's timeframe), for BOS and CHoCH, bullish and bearish:
- Breaks found
- After the break price went on 1.0 ATR first: from the close of the breaking candle, did price move 1 x ATR(14) in the break's direction before it moved 1 x ATR against it? ATR = the average size of one candle
- From a random bar, same direction: the same question from three random earlier bars per break - the base rate of the market
- Difference: break minus random, in percentage points
When the difference is bigger than luck alone could produce (95% range), it turns green and a green line under the table says so.
The table also shows the structure right now: bullish or bearish, and since which CHoCH.
Example from our broker's history (MetaTrader 5, full history)
Gold H4, 15,002 bars since 2011: after a bullish CHoCH price went on 1 ATR first 59% of the time, against 50% from random bars - a difference of +9.1 points, more than luck explains (green in the table). Gold H1, 52,488 bars: bullish CHoCH +6.6 points, also green. Your chart shows your own numbers for your symbol and timeframe.
Why the random bars matter
Markets drift, so "price went up after a bullish break" can just be the trend of that period. The random bars in the same direction show that base rate, so you see what the break itself adds on top of it.
How to use it
- Works on any symbol and any timeframe
- MetaTrader 4 downloads only part of the history at first (often about 2,000 bars). Scroll the chart back (Home key) and raise Tools > Options > Charts > Max bars in chart for more reliable numbers
- The table counts closed bars only, so it doesn't jump with every tick
- Change the swing size, close or wick breaks, or the distance, and the table shows at once how your version of market structure does on your symbol
Limitations
- The stats only cover the history loaded on the chart
- The test uses bar highs and lows. Inside one bar the order of moves is unknown, so a bar that reaches both distances is left out
- A swing is known only after the candles on its right side have closed - like on every honest structure indicator, it does not repaint after that
- Past behaviour does not guarantee future behaviour. This is a drawing and measuring tool, not a trading signal
Inputs
- Timeframe of the structure: default the chart's own
- Swing size: 5 candles on each side; a break needs a candle close (default) or a wick beyond the swing
- Draw the last N bars: 300; swing labels: on; BOS lines: on; CHoCH lines: on; breaks shown: 20; next-break levels: on
- Bullish and bearish colours, label font size
- Alerts: new CHoCH (on), new BOS (off); popup, sound, push, email
- Distance in ATR(14): 1.0; bars to decide: 50
- Show the honest stats table, table corner, font size
Support: if something doesn't work as expected, send me a private message first. I answer every message and fix problems quickly.
