Trading Results (June 22–26)
Weekly Total: +66,145 USD
Market RecapThe market has once again become firmly centered on the U.S. dollar.
Following last week's FOMC meeting, expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening remained intact, while U.S. Treasury yields stayed elevated.
As a result:
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The U.S. dollar strengthened broadly against the major currencies.
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Gold rebounded from its recent pullback.
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Silver followed gold higher.
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The euro, British pound, and commodity-linked currencies remained under pressure.
Overall, the market offered a very clear macro theme:
Buy the U.S. dollar—or sell almost everything else.
When a dominant theme emerges like this, trading decisions become considerably more straightforward.
Going Forward
I have no intention of expanding into more trading markets simply for the sake of trading.
The priority remains the same:
Concentrate capital where the market theme is the clearest.
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Continue prioritizing USD-related trades while the dollar trend remains intact.
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Monitor Gold and Silver for attractive pullback buying opportunities.
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Avoid forcing trades in directionless ranging markets.
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Focus only on markets displaying strong and well-defined trends.
The market does not offer high-quality opportunities every day.
That is precisely why I continue to emphasize one principle:
Trade only the highest-probability setups.
FX Strategy Update
Market Outlook
June 29 – July 4, 2026
Theme of the Week
The biggest question for the coming week is:
Can the U.S. dollar rally continue?
Markets will focus on:
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U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls
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Bank of Japan Tankan Survey
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Eurozone HICP Inflation
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ECB Forum
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Global PMI data
Among these, the most important event is unquestionably:
The U.S. Employment Report.
If labor market strength remains intact, expectations for additional Fed tightening could strengthen further, extending the dollar rally.
Conversely, weaker-than-expected employment data could trigger profit-taking after the substantial accumulation of long-dollar positions.
Currency Strategies
USD/JPY
Expected Range: 159.50–163.50
The preferred strategy remains:
Buy on pullbacks.
However, the 162.00 area remains highly sensitive due to the growing risk of intervention by Japanese authorities.
At these levels, preserving capital is more important than aggressively chasing additional upside.
EUR/USD
Expected Range: 1.1100–1.1500
The preferred strategy remains:
Sell into rallies.
The Federal Reserve continues to dominate the policy narrative, limiting upside potential for the euro despite expectations for further ECB tightening.
AUD/JPY
Expected Range: 110.50–113.00
Watch closely for:
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Australian economic data
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Comments from Reserve Bank of Australia officials
If directional momentum develops, AUD/JPY has the potential for substantial price movement.
CAD/JPY
Expected Range: 112.50–115.00
Key drivers include:
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Crude oil prices
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North American trade developments
As long as the dollar remains strong, upside potential for CAD/JPY is likely to remain limited.
Core Trading Strategy for the Week
The key principle remains unchanged:
Trade only markets with a clear macro theme.
Focus on:
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USD-related trades while dollar strength persists.
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Gold and Silver as long as their broader trends remain constructive.
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Avoid currency pairs lacking clear directional momentum.
Long-term consistency comes from trading only when the odds are clearly in your favor.
Primary Market Scenario
The market now stands at an important crossroads:
Will the second wave of dollar strength continue?
If the U.S. Employment Report exceeds expectations, the dollar rally could accelerate further.
At the same time, intervention risk increases as USD/JPY approaches 162.00.
Therefore, my primary strategy for next week is simple:
Don't fight the dollar—but don't chase USD/JPY higher either.
Maintaining this balance will likely be the key to navigating next week's market successfully.
Afterword: Successful Trading Starts with a Healthy Gut
The gut is often referred to today as "the second brain."
For many years, it was viewed simply as the organ responsible for digesting food.
Modern research, however, has shown that gut bacteria influence much more than digestion.
They affect:
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Appetite
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Satiety
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Metabolism
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Inflammation
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How the body uses energy
In other words, good health depends not only on what you eat, but also on the health of your gut microbiome.
I believe the same principle applies to trading.
Many traders spend most of their time searching for better systems or more sophisticated indicators.
But ultimately, the person executing the strategy is you.
When you're tired…
When you're stressed…
When you're frustrated…
Or when your concentration is fading…
Even the best trading system cannot perform at its full potential.
That is why consistently successful traders place great importance on the fundamentals:
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Quality sleep
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Regular exercise
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Healthy nutrition
Scientific research also suggests that vegetables, fruits, legumes, whole grains, and fermented foods—all rich in dietary fiber—can help support a healthy gut microbiome.
Spending more time studying charts is certainly valuable.
But investing time in improving your own physical and mental condition may be even more important.
Good decisions come from a clear mind.
A clear mind depends on a healthy body.
As we head into another trading week, let's continue to monitor not only the charts, but also our own condition, so we can approach every trade with patience, discipline, and confidence.
