Technical Analysis – June 12, 2026
Market Overview
The market environment has shifted somewhat from the previous theme of:
"Dollar dominance + broad risk-off sentiment"
to a more balanced structure.
Key developments include:
- Dollar strength remains intact
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD are rebounding
- Global equity indices have recovered sharply
- Bitcoin continues to bounce
- Crude oil and natural gas remain under heavy pressure
- Gold is staging a recovery
Overall, markets appear to be experiencing a risk-asset rebound following recent panic selling.
1. U.S. Dollar
USD/JPY – 160.15
- Hourly: Sell
- Daily: Strong Buy
Short-term momentum is corrective.
However, the daily trend remains firmly bullish.
As long as USD/JPY holds above 160, the broader outlook continues to favor dollar strength.
USD/CHF – 0.7960
- Hourly: Neutral
- Daily: Strong Buy
The broader uptrend remains intact.
Short-term momentum has weakened somewhat, but the larger bullish structure remains unchanged.
2. Euro and British Pound
EUR/USD – 1.1576
- Hourly: Strong Buy
- Daily: Strong Sell
GBP/USD – 1.3415
- Hourly: Strong Buy
- Daily: Sell
A wave of dollar profit-taking has triggered a short-term rebound in both pairs.
However, daily charts continue to indicate broader downtrends.
For now, these moves appear more like corrective rallies than full trend reversals.
3. Commodity Currencies
AUD/USD
- Hourly: Strong Buy
- Daily: Strong Sell
NZD/USD
- Hourly: Strong Buy
- Daily: Strong Sell
Both currencies are experiencing short-term recoveries.
Nevertheless, daily trends remain bearish.
They remain potential candidates for selling into rallies if dollar strength resumes.
4. Yen Crosses
Strongest
- GBP/JPY
- EUR/JPY
Strong
- NZD/JPY
- AUD/JPY
Weak
- CAD/JPY
- CHF/JPY
The broader yen weakness theme remains intact.
Even though USD/JPY is undergoing a short-term correction, most yen crosses continue to hold firm.
5. Gold
GOLD – $4,223
- Hourly: Buy
- Daily: Strong Sell
Gold continues its rebound after the recent sharp decline.
Conditions have improved considerably compared with the previous "strong sell across all timeframes" environment.
However, the daily trend remains bearish.
This still looks like a counter-trend rally rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.
6. Silver
SILVER – $67
- Hourly: Strong Buy
- Daily: Strong Sell
Silver is outperforming gold in the short term.
Short-term speculative capital appears to be flowing back into the precious metals sector.
7. Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil – $84.29
- Strong Sell across all timeframes
Oil remains one of the weakest markets.
Prices are now firmly established below $90.
The dominant strategy continues to favor selling rallies.
8. Natural Gas
Natural Gas – 3.043
- Strong Sell across all timeframes
Natural gas has completely lost the strength seen in recent weeks.
Weakness across the broader commodity complex is becoming increasingly evident.
9. Bitcoin
BTC/USD – $63,833
- Hourly: Strong Buy
- Daily: Strong Sell
Bitcoin continues to recover in the short term.
However, the daily downtrend remains intact.
At this stage, the move appears to be a rebound rather than a confirmed long-term trend reversal.
10. Equity Markets
Biggest Change in This Report
United States
Dow Jones
- Strong Buy across all timeframes
S&P 500
- Strong Buy across all timeframes
NASDAQ
- Strong Buy across all timeframes
The previous broad-based selling has been completely reversed.
Risk appetite has returned aggressively.
Europe
DAX
- Strong Buy
CAC 40
- Strong Buy
FTSE 100
- Strong Buy
European equities have also improved significantly.
Japan
Nikkei 225
- Hourly: Strong Buy
- Daily: Strong Buy
The weaker yen is once again providing strong support for Japanese equities.
Strongest Markets
S-Rank
- GBP/JPY
- EUR/JPY
- Dow Jones
- NASDAQ
- S&P 500
A-Rank
- Bitcoin (short-term)
- Gold (short-term)
- Silver (short-term)
- EUR/CHF
- NZD/JPY
Weakest Markets
- Crude Oil
- Natural Gas
- CAD/JPY
- EUR/GBP
- AUD/NZD
Trading Perspective
Potential Long Opportunities
- GBP/JPY
- EUR/JPY
- Dow Jones
- NASDAQ
- S&P 500
- Short-term Gold longs
Potential Short Opportunities
- Crude Oil
- Natural Gas
- AUD/NZD
- EUR/GBP
Final Conclusion
The market has shifted from:
"Dollar strength + broad risk-off sentiment"
to:
"Dollar strength remains intact while equities and selected risk assets rebound."
The most reasonable interpretation at the moment is:
- Dollar uptrend remains in place
- Equities are experiencing a risk-on recovery
- Precious metals are undergoing a corrective rebound
- Crude oil and natural gas remain structurally weak
The two markets worth watching most closely are:
1. Crude Oil Weakness
A continued decline would reinforce the view that geopolitical risk premiums are fading.
2. U.S. Equity Recovery
If the rebound continues, it could signal that markets are becoming more comfortable with higher interest rates and shifting back toward growth-oriented assets.
These two themes may provide the clearest clues regarding the next major directional move across global markets.
