Today’s FX Option Overview — May 22, 2026
Spot Levels (Current Prices)
EUR/USD: 1.1614
USD/JPY: 159.08
GBP/USD: 1.3429
USD/CHF: 0.7861
USD/CAD: 1.3788
AUD/USD: 0.7141
NZD/USD: 0.5874
EUR/GBP: 0.8647
EUR/USD
- 1.1500 (€810M)
- 1.1545 (€640M)
- 1.1575 (€1.0B)
- 1.1600 (€1.4B)
- 1.1610 (€820M)
- 1.1615 (€940M)
- 1.1620 (€530M)
- 1.1625 (€780M)
- 1.1630 (€1.2B)
- 1.1635 (€950M)
- 1.1650 (€630M)
- 1.1660 (€510M)
- 1.1700 (€1.8B)
Current spot: 1.1614
The key characteristic today is the extremely dense concentration between:
1.1600–1.1635.
Most important are:
- 1.1600 (€1.4B)
- 1.1630 (€1.2B)
- 1.1700 (€1.8B)
Spot is currently positioned around:
the 1.1610–1.1620 zone.
This creates a strong probability of:
“pinning in the low 1.16 range.”
In the short term:
- even if EUR/USD breaks below 1.1600, rebounds are likely
- upside momentum may become heavy around 1.1630–1.1650
At the same time,
1.1700 (€1.8B)
is exceptionally large.
If dollar weakness emerges,
a sharp rebound toward 1.17
must be considered.
However, for now,
sell-on-rally conditions
remain the base scenario.
USD/JPY
- 157.50 ($1.7B)
- 158.00 ($1.0B)
- 158.45 ($630M)
- 158.50 ($2.2B)
- 158.65 ($1.2B)
- 158.90 ($820M)
- 159.00 ($1.4B)
- 160.00 ($820M)
- 160.50 ($1.2B)
- 161.00 ($1.5B)
Current spot: 159.08
This remains the market’s dominant theme.
Spot has already moved above:
the 159.00 zone.
However,
- 158.50 ($2.2B)
- 159.00 ($1.4B)
remain extremely large strikes.
This creates strong conditions for:
“159 stabilization”
in the short term.
In addition,
large option positioning also exists at:
- 160.00
- 160.50
- 161.00
This confirms that the market remains strongly focused on:
the 160–161 zone.
At the same time,
158.50 ($2.2B)
remains an exceptionally large downside magnet.
After sharp rallies,
pullbacks toward the upper 158s
may occur very quickly.
Overall, this creates conditions for:
“a high-volatility range centered around 159.”
USD/CAD
- 1.3670 ($660M)
- 1.3750 ($730M)
Current spot: 1.3788
Spot has moved slightly above:
1.3750.
This suggests that in the short term,
a pullback toward 1.3750
may occur relatively easily.
However, if broad dollar strength continues,
holding within the 1.38 range
remains entirely possible.
AUD/USD
- 0.7160 (AUD 900M)
Current spot: 0.7141
This strike remains relatively close to spot.
Therefore,
a rebound toward 0.7160
is reasonably likely.
However, broader market conditions still favor:
continued dollar strength.
As a result,
sell-on-rally conditions
likely remain dominant overall.
NZD/USD
- 0.5750 (NZD 750M)
Current spot: 0.5874
This strike sits significantly below current spot.
This suggests that the market continues to price in:
downside risk for NZD.
Monday (May 25)
EUR/USD
- 1.1550 (€560M)
- 1.1635 (€870M)
- 1.1645 (€530M)
- 1.1650 (€590M)
- 1.1700 (€720M)
- 1.1715 (€640M)
- 1.1720 (€520M)
- 1.1725 (€560M)
- 1.1750 (€720M)
Current spot: 1.1614
For the start of next week,
1.1635
is the closest and most important strike.
This creates conditions for:
“a pull toward 1.1635”
in the short term.
In addition,
multiple large strikes remain concentrated between:
1.1700–1.1750.
If dollar strength temporarily cools,
short-covering toward the 1.17 area
may develop.
However, for now,
the low 1.16 range
remains the central market theme.
USD/JPY
- 156.73 ($600M)
- 158.50 ($510M)
- 160.70 ($710M)
- 161.00 ($610M)
Current spot: 159.08
Next week’s structure still emphasizes:
160.70
and
161.00.
This confirms that the market continues to focus on:
the 160–161 zone.
At the same time,
158.50
still remains an important downside level.
If sharp declines emerge,
a pullback toward the upper 158s
could accelerate.
However, overall conditions still favor:
buying dips.
EUR/GBP
- 0.8675 (€510M)
Current spot: 0.8647
This strike is relatively close to spot.
Therefore,
a pull toward 0.8675
is reasonably likely.
Overall Market Structure
The dominant market theme remains:
“continued dollar strength”
+
“USD/JPY testing the 160–161 zone.”
Especially in USD/JPY,
the market continues to focus on:
- stabilization around 159
- movement toward 160
- eventual focus on 161
However,
158.50 ($2.2B)
remains a massive downside magnet,
meaning that sharp reversal pullbacks
can still occur quickly.
Meanwhile, EUR/USD remains centered around:
the low 1.16 area.
Trading Strategy
EUR/USD
- Focus on stabilization between 1.1600–1.1635
- Sell rallies favored
- Stay alert for sharp rebounds toward 1.17
USD/JPY
- 159 remains the center point
- Watch closely for movement toward 160–161
- Be cautious of reversals toward 158.50
AUD/USD
- Watch for rebounds toward 0.7160
- Sell rallies favored
USD/CAD
- Watch for pullback toward 1.3750
Summary
The market continues to trade around:
“broad dollar strength.”
Within that framework:
- EUR/USD low 1.16s
- USD/JPY 159–161
remain the market’s primary focal points.
Especially in USD/JPY,
after stabilizing above 159,
the dominant market question has become:
“Will the market test the 160–161 zone?”
At the same time,
- intervention concerns
- profit-taking
- NY cut reversals
are also becoming increasingly important risks.
Short-term conditions remain highly volatile and headline-sensitive.
