分析と予測

Heading Into the Final Stretch of Central Bank Week — BOE, ECB, and U.S. CPI Digested; Focus Shifts to Tomorrow’s BOJ Me

18 12月 2025, 09:59
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
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📘 Heading Into the Final Stretch of Central Bank Week
— BOE, ECB, and U.S. CPI Digested; Focus Shifts to Tomorrow’s BOJ Meeting —

■ Market Overview: Event Clustering Keeps Markets on Edge

Today marks one of the most event-heavy sessions of the week, with the BOE decision, ECB meeting, and U.S. CPI release all scheduled on the same day.
With the Bank of Japan policy meeting following tomorrow, FX markets are refraining from aggressive positioning, while remaining vulnerable to sharp swings depending on event outcomes.

The broader market backdrop can be summarized as:

  • Position adjustments ahead of major risk events

  • Rates and FX markets in “wait-for-conclusions” mode

  • Heightened sensitivity to short-term, flow-driven moves

Overall, this is a high-alert, low-conviction trading environment.

■ Early London Session: USD/JPY Stalls Ahead of 156

Price action in early London has been cautious, reflecting pre-event restraint.

USD/JPY

  • Rose temporarily to 155.95

  • Encountered selling pressure just ahead of 156

  • Pulled back toward the 155.80 area

JPY crosses

  • EUR/JPY: Early 183s → momentum fades

  • GBP/JPY: Mid-208s → upside stalls

▶ A lack of fresh catalysts makes a clean break above 156 difficult,
underscoring the market’s wait-and-see stance.

■ BOE: Rate Cut Is the Base Case, Focus on Vote Split and Tone

Announcement at 21:00 JST

  • Market consensus: 25bp rate cut

  • Key focus: Voting breakdown and statement tone

A narrow 5–4 vote split is widely anticipated, highlighting ongoing internal divisions.
Markets will closely assess how the BOE addresses:

  • Persistent services inflation

  • Ongoing wage growth pressures

The framing of these issues in the statement and press communication will be critical for sterling direction.

■ ECB: No Policy Change Expected, Lagarde Presser Is Key

Policy decision at 22:15 / Press conference at 22:45 JST

  • Policy rates: Expected to remain unchanged

Rather than immediate policy action, market attention is on:

  • The ECB’s growth assessment

  • Confidence in inflation deceleration

  • Signals regarding the effective “terminal point” of tightening

👉 Depending on President Lagarde’s messaging, the euro could move decisively in one direction.

■ U.S. CPI (November): The Core Link in the Event Chain

Release at 22:30 JST

  • Headline CPI (YoY): +3.1% (consensus)

  • Core CPI (YoY): +3.0% (consensus)

With October CPI still unpublished, market sensitivity to this release is elevated.

Given the sequence:
BOE → U.S. CPI → ECB press conference,
the 21:00–23:00 JST window is likely to be the most volatile of the session.

■ Tomorrow’s Main Event: Bank of Japan Policy Meeting

  • A rate hike to 0.75% is largely priced in

  • The real focus lies on:

    • Governor Ueda’s press conference

    • Guidance on additional rate hikes

    • Clarification of neutral rate estimates and policy stance

👉 At this stage, messaging outweighs the decision itself in determining yen direction.

■ Summary: Conclusions Still Premature — Focus on the “Quality of Reactions”

  • Today features a triple event risk: BOE, ECB, and U.S. CPI

  • USD/JPY: 156 remains a key psychological resistance

  • With the BOJ still ahead, directional conviction remains low

While short-term volatility spikes are possible, chasing moves carries elevated risk.

▶ Recommended stance for today:

Carefully observe initial reactions → pullbacks → price stabilization after each event.
Avoid forcing conclusions —
👉 The primary opportunity lies after the BOJ meeting, not before.

The market is still gathering information before committing to its next major move.


#CPI, ECB.BOE