📊 Key Events Today: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls & Canadian Jobs Report
💵 United States — NFP in Focus
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Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP):
Forecast: +75k (previous +73k)
👉 Dollar likely to swing sharply depending on the degree of surprise. -
Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (previous 4.2%)
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Average Hourly Earnings:
MoM: +0.3% (previous +0.3%)
YoY: +3.8% (previous +3.9%) -
Weak results could shift market expectations from a 25bp to 50bp Fed cut in September.
🇨🇦 Canada — Jobs Report Also Key
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Employment Change: +5k expected (previous -40.3k) → modest rebound forecast.
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Unemployment Rate: 7.0% (previous 6.9%) → slight deterioration.
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Focus also on full-time employment and participation rate.
🇪🇺 Europe — Euro Holding Firm
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Eurozone GDP (Q2, final): +1.5% YoY (revised up from +1.4%).
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Market reaction:
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EUR/USD climbed to 1.1688
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EUR/JPY reached 173.17, marking new highs.
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💵 Dollar Index (DXY)
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Facing selling pressure ahead of NFP.
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Tokyo AM: 98.256 → London: 97.956
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Currently: 98.10s, below both the 10- and 21-day MAs.
👉 Reflects profit-taking after yesterday’s USD rally and pre-NFP position adjustment.
🗣 Events & Headlines
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent begins interviews with 11 candidates for next Fed Chair.
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Fed now in blackout period (no public remarks).
👉 Tonight’s NFP will be the decisive trigger for the September rate cut size.
📌 Trade Strategy Notes
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Base stance: Maintain a dollar-selling bias.
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If NFP is weak → Expect accelerated USD selling.
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If NFP is strong → Risk of a short-term USD rebound.
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Dollar Index is breaking lower on short-term technicals → NFP could cause sharp volatility.
📈 Expected Trading Ranges (Sept 5)
| Pair | Range | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 146.20 – 147.80 | Awaiting NFP; upside capped below 149 intervention zone |
| EUR/USD | 1.1620 – 1.1720 | Supported by stronger GDP; watch if it can hold above 1.17 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3410 – 1.3510 | UK fiscal concerns cap upside |
| EUR/JPY | 172.20 – 173.50 | Trading near highs on euro strength |
| GBP/JPY | 197.50 – 199.50 | 200 barrier capping topside |
| AUD/JPY | 95.20 – 96.20 | Bias to sell rallies; 96+ is heavy |
| CAD/JPY | 105.80 – 107.20 | Jobs report could set direction |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | 3420 – 3480 | Bullish on ongoing USD selling; 3500 is a key barrier |
✅ Summary
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Tonight’s U.S. jobs data will determine whether the Fed cuts by 25bp or 50bp.
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Dollar Index shows weakness ahead of NFP.
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Euro supported by stronger GDP; yen crosses capped near psychological levels.
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Gold remains firm with 3500 in sight.
Would you like me to prepare a “scenario matrix” (NFP stronger vs weaker vs in-line) showing likely market reactions for USD, EUR, JPY, and Gold? That could give you quick trading triggers for tonight.
