🔹 Market Overview
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USD/JPY: Stalled just below 149. Currently mid-148s.
→ Strong awareness of government/BoJ intervention zone (149–150). -
Dollar Index (DXY): Rose to 98.6, then eased back to 98.2.
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Pound Selling Leads USD Buying: U.K. fiscal concerns triggered sharp GBP/USD drop → spillover into broader dollar demand.
📊 Key Events
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Economic Data: U.S. JOLTs job openings, ISM Services PMI, Eurozone PPI, U.S. MBA mortgage applications.
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Speeches: ECB President Lagarde, RBA Governor Bullock, Fed’s Musalem (St. Louis).
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NY Session: Fed Beige Book release.
📝 Trade Strategy Notes
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Base View: Dollar buying wave is stalling ahead of NFP → prefer “sell rallies” stance.
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Short-Term Tactics: Follow yields/bonds closely, opportunistic contrarian trades.
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Risk Watch: If USD/JPY approaches 149–150, intervention fears may trigger sharp reversals.
📈 Simplified Range Table (Guide Levels)
| Pair | Expected Range | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 147.80 – 149.30 | Upside capped by intervention risk; 25-day MA supports downside. |
| EUR/USD | 1.1620 – 1.1720 | CPI/ECB remarks may spark blips, but trend awaits NFP. |
| GBP/USD | 1.3420 – 1.3520 | U.K. gilt yield surge pressured GBP; range forming around 1.35. |
| EUR/JPY | 171.50 – 172.80 | Moves with Eurozone data, but underlying yen weakness provides support. |
| GBP/JPY | 197.80 – 199.80 | 200 is psychological resistance; fiscal risks cap upside. |
| AUD/JPY | 95.20 – 96.50 | Dependent on Aussie data & RBA speech; bias toward selling rallies. |
| CAD/JPY | 106.20 – 107.60 | Sensitive to U.S./Canada data and oil; weak bias persists. |
| XAU/USD | 3420 – 3475 | Firm on dollar softness, but $3,500 remains strong resistance. |
✅ Summary
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USD/JPY: Sell rallies near 149; watch for intervention risks.
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EUR/USD: Range-bound; direction to be set by NFP.
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GBP remains fragile on fiscal stress.
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Cross-yen supported by underlying yen weakness, but capped at big round levels.
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Gold remains a “buy dips” play unless $3,500 is breached.
