📉 USD/JPY Volatility Driven by Tariffs and Iran Talks Loss of -$63,923 Uncovers the Next Tactical Move
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📉 USD/JPY Volatility Driven by Tariffs and Iran Talks Loss of -$63,923 Uncovers the Next Tactical Move

6 7月 2025, 11:02
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
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📉 USD/JPY Volatility Driven by Tariffs and Iran Talks
Loss of -$63,923 Uncovers the Next Tactical Move

💹 Trade Summary (June 30 – July 4)
Last week’s positions, based on an expected drop in oil prices, backfired.
Following reports that Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz and halt cooperation with the IAEA, oil prices surged, resulting in a major loss of $63,923.

This week, the focus shifts to USD/JPY and EUR/USD, with a tighter risk management approach.

🧭 Key Drivers This Week: U.S. Tariff Notice (July 9) & FOMC Minutes
Tuesday, July 9 marks the deadline for the U.S. reciprocal tariff notice.
Former President Trump’s remarks on Japan-specific tariffs have heightened sensitivity around the yen.
FOMC minutes and developments in U.S.–Iran nuclear talks also add to the high-risk calendar.

🔍 Currency Strategy & Outlook (Week of July 7)

💵 USD/JPY｜Tariffs and FOMC Minutes Test Directional Bias

  • Key Dates:
    • July 9: Reciprocal tariff deadline & FOMC minutes release
    • July 11: U.S. budget statement (tariff revenue focus)
    • Ongoing: U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations (yen-buying or dollar-buying potential)
      📌 Strategy:
      Look for short-term trades around events. Favor selling rallies between 144.50–145.50.

💶 EUR/USD｜Upward Momentum Slows Near 1.20

  • Focus: Eurozone May retail sales & German industrial output
  • ECB Vice President’s comments suggest discomfort above 1.20
    📌 Strategy:
    Buy on dips between 1.1750–1.1850, but take profits above 1.19.

💷 GBP/JPY｜UK Fiscal Concerns and BOE Rate Cut Speculation Weigh Heavily

  • Risks: UK May GDP, withdrawal of fiscal reform plans
  • Added pressure from potential finance minister replacement and political instability
    📌 Strategy:
    Sell rallies between 184.80–185.50. BOE rate cut expectations remain in place.

🇨🇦 CAD/JPY｜Trade Negotiations and Employment Data in Focus

  • Spotlight: U.S.–Canada digital tax resolution
  • Employment data at risk of undershooting after weak PMI
    📌 Strategy:
    Expect range-bound movement between 105.30–106.50. Bad news could push it into the 104 range.

🇦🇺 AUD/JPY｜Rate Cuts Priced In, Upside Possible on a Hawkish Surprise

  • July 7–8: RBA meeting (rate cuts expected)
  • Market pricing: 3–4 rate cuts within the year
    📌 Strategy:
    If the RBA cuts with a hawkish tone, expect a rebound.
    Trade the 97.80–99.30 range.

🗒 Weekly Strategy Notes
✅ Focus only on USD/JPY and EUR/USD
✅ Target price spikes right before or after key events
✅ Observe on Monday; wait for direction after events unfold

📣 Market Outlook
With markets on high alert for both “geopolitical shocks” and “tariff developments,”
this week is all about timing. Don’t chase—stay disciplined and wait for high-confidence setups.


#Tariffs