✅ [June 5 FX Market Summary] Dollar in Choppy Recovery Mode, But Tariff and Rate Cut Expectations Cap Upside｜Focus on IS

✅ [June 5 FX Market Summary] Dollar in Choppy Recovery Mode, But Tariff and Rate Cut Expectations Cap Upside｜Focus on ISM Services Index 

📰 Fundamental Summary

USD: Lacking Clear Direction

• Concerns about global economic slowdown due to Trump’s tariff hikes continue to weigh on the dollar. Downward pressure on USD remains, though short-term moves are choppy and without a clear trend. Markets appear to be gradually pricing in Trump’s rhetoric.

Key Events: U.S. ADP Employment & ISM Services Index

• ADP Employment Forecast: +114K (Previous: +62K)

• ISM Services Index Forecast: 52.0 (Previous: 51.6)
  → Market expectations for the June 7 Nonfarm Payrolls could shift significantly depending on these results.

JOLTS Job Openings Beat Expectations

• Reported at 7.391 million, stronger than forecast. Labor market strength is acknowledged, but offset by weakness in the ISM Manufacturing Index.

Canadian Dollar: Bank of Canada Rate Decision in Focus

• Market divided between a hold and a rate cut. Volatility likely to increase after the announcement.

Europe: Final Services PMIs Due

• Unless major revisions are seen, impact is expected to be limited. The market is showing signs of “event fatigue.”

💹 Technical Strategy Highlights (June 5)

💵 USD/JPY

• Yen weakened after comments from BoJ Governor, pushing USD/JPY briefly into the 144.60 zone.

• However, the 145.00 level remains heavy with continued selling pressure.
  Strategy: Sell around 144.80–145.00, stop above 145.50.

💶 EUR/USD

• Euro remains firm despite mixed data.

• Support seen at 1.1330–1.1350. A break above 1.1400 could signal renewed upside.
  Strategy: Maintain dip-buying stance. Stop out below 1.1280.

💷 GBP/JPY

• Lacks direction ahead of final UK PMI data.

• Resistance near 195.00, support around 193.60.
  Strategy: Watch for breakout trades or consider counter-trend trades within the range.

📌 Key Events Today

• U.S. ADP Employment Report (May)

• U.S. ISM Services PMI (May)

• U.S. Beige Book, Bank of Canada statement and press conference, Crude oil inventory report

💬 Commentary
The overall dollar weakness trend remains intact, but short-term rebounds may occur depending on data. Today’s main focus is the U.S. ISM Services Index. Selling the dollar on rallies remains a valid strategy in the current environment.