分析と予測

✅ [June 4 FX Market Summary] Dollar Rebounds Temporarily but Tariff Risks Remain Heavy｜Sell USD/JPY on Rallies, Buy EUR/

3 6月 2025, 10:40
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
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✅ [June 4 FX Market Summary] Dollar Rebounds Temporarily but Tariff Risks Remain Heavy｜Sell USD/JPY on Rallies, Buy EUR/USD on Dips

📰 Fundamentals Summary

Temporary Dollar Rebound

  • The dollar saw a brief recovery as U.S. equities paused and bond yields stabilized.

Tariff Tensions Resurface

  • The U.S. raised tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%. The EU hinted at retaliation, while China maintained a firm stance. Geopolitical and economic uncertainty remains high.

Focus on U.S. JOLTS Job Openings

  • Previous: 7.195 million | Forecast: 7.10 million

  • A downside surprise may trigger renewed dollar selling.

💹 Technical Strategy Highlights

💵 USD/JPY – Selling on Rallies Preferred

  • Resistance seen in the low 144s; support exists in the 143 range but remains vulnerable.
    Strategy: Sell near 144.00, stop above 144.60.

💶 EUR/USD – Uptrend Continues

  • A break above 1.1370 may lead to a test of the 1.14 level. Dip buying remains the core approach.
    Strategy: Buy between 1.1330–40, cut losses below 1.1290.

💷 GBP/JPY – Range-Bound

  • Resistance remains in the high 194s; support around the 193 area. Lacks clear direction.
    Strategy: Buy on breakout above 195.20 / Sell below 193.80.

📌 Key Data & Events

  • U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (April)

  • Speeches from multiple Fed officials, including Chair Powell

  • Eurozone HICP and unemployment data also in focus

📢 Overall Outlook

  • Even amid short-term corrections, the broader trend of dollar weakness remains intact. Watch for renewed risk-off sentiment and a return to dollar selling after position adjustments.


#U.S., JOLTS, Job, Openings