分析と予測

NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls): FX Market Lacks Direction, High Volatility with Low Reliability

2 5月 2025, 11:00
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
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NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls): FX Market Lacks Direction, High Volatility with Low Reliability
✅ Today’s Stance: Cautious and Observational Mode

Weekly Recap:
Due to headlines surrounding Trump tariffs, speculation over Powell’s dismissal, and criticism of the Fed, the forex market has lost clear direction, entering a phase of high volatility and low reliability.

It was also a week of increased losses — avoiding unnecessary trades and staying on the sidelines is the best approach.

🎯 Key Focus for Today (May 2)

📌 U.S. Employment Report (21:30 JST)

  • NFP: Forecast +138K (Previous +228K)
  • Unemployment Rate: Forecast 4.2% (Same as previous)
  • Average Hourly Earnings YoY: Forecast +3.9% (Previous +3.8%)

🔻 Cautions:

  • Wide forecast range (50K to 170K) means higher risk of surprise results.
  • Even a moderately strong result may not lead to a clear trend due to prevailing themes like stagflation fears and policy confusion from tariffs.

📌 Key Chart Levels to Watch

USD/JPY:

  • Support: 143.60
  • Resistance: 144.80
    → A break below 143.00 may accelerate yen buying; a break above 144.80 could trigger short-term yen selling.

EUR/USD:

  • Support: 1.0710
  • Resistance: 1.0830
    → A breakout beyond this range may confirm a trend shift; within range, best to observe.

Gold (XAU/USD):

  • Support: 2310
  • Resistance: 2365
    → Sensitive to inflation/yield moves post-NFP, a breakout beyond the current range could present a short-term opportunity.

⛔ Conclusion: Trade with Caution

Waiting for a more favorable trading environment is a legitimate strategy.
Today, it’s wise to stay in "watch mode" and closely monitor charts and news flow.

USD/JPY Market Update (as of May 2, 2025)

  • Closing Price: 145.316
  • High: 145.924
  • Low: 145.141
  • Change from Previous Day: +0.278 (+0.19%)

This rise is attributed to the Bank of Japan maintaining its policy rate and downgrading its growth and inflation outlook, which led to yen depreciation.
Additionally, U.S. data showed initial jobless claims reaching a two-month high and a decline in manufacturing PMI to 48.7, heightening stagflation concerns.

🔍 Technical Analysis & Outlook

  • Short-term Support: Around 145.00
  • Resistance Level: Around 146.00
  • RSI: ~55 (Neutral)

Currently, USD/JPY is trading in a range around the 145 level, showing a lack of clear direction.
Key upcoming drivers include U.S. employment data and monetary policy updates from both Japan and the U.S.
If the jobs data misses expectations, dollar selling may gain momentum, pushing USD/JPY lower.

💡 Trade Strategy Highlights

  • Short-term: Range trading between 145.00 and 146.00 (mean reversion strategy).
  • Medium to Long-term: Wait for clearer trends shaped by economic data and policy direction in Japan and the U.S.

The market remains directionless. Cautious trading and strict risk management are essential, especially in light of sensitive U.S. data and BoJ policy cues.


#NFP, (Non-Farm, Payrolls)