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[USD Selling + US-Japan FX Talks — Double Pressure Ahead for USD/JPY This Week]

14 4月 2025, 10:43

[USD Selling + US-Japan FX Talks — Double Pressure Ahead for USD/JPY This Week]

― Dollar weakness driven by Trump tariffs may be compounded by Japan-US discussions on yen correction ―

■ Fundamental Backdrop: Dollar Selling Persists, US-Japan Talks Could Add Pressure

This week’s USD/JPY outlook faces two key bearish factors:
→ USD weakness from U.S. domestic issues + potential yen appreciation tied to US-Japan trade negotiations

🔻 Why the Dollar is Weak

Escalating reciprocal tariffs from the Trump administration are weighing on U.S. growth outlook
Trump’s unpredictable remarks are a continuing source of market uncertainty
Even with a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar remains under pressure

🔺 Why the Yen May Strengthen — Focus on US-Japan Trade Talks

Trade negotiations between Japan’s Economic Revitalization Minister Akazawa and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent begin on April 17
Reports also suggest a potential meeting with Finance Minister Kato
→ Markets are pricing in concerns over pressure to correct yen weakness
→ If comments are interpreted as verbal intervention, USD/JPY could break lower

■ FX Market Capital Flow Trends: Risk-Off + Dollar Weakness in Play

📊 1-Month Currency Strength vs USD:

Strong	Medium	Weak
Swiss Franc (CHF)	Yen (JPY), Euro (EUR)	GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD

📈 Past Week Shifts:

AUD and NZD have seen fresh buying interest; cross-currency activity increasing
JPY has underperformed relative to EUR, but could regain favor depending on trade talk outcomes

■ Volatility Watch: USD/JPY Short-Term Volatility Spikes

1-week implied volatility surged to 22% last week and now sits around 18.4%
This is approaching the panic peak of 22.9% in early August 2024
→ Re-emerging risk of sharp yen appreciation (panic-style moves) is now being priced in

■ Upcoming Events (Global Time Reference)

Date	Event	Impact
Apr 15 (Tue)	Start of Japan-US trade negotiations	★★★★★
Apr 15–16	NY Fed Inflation Expectations, Canada Wholesale Sales	★★☆☆☆ (Limited)
Apr 18 (Thu)	ECB Meeting	★★★★☆ (Watch for EUR volatility)

🗣️ Speeches to Watch:

Fed Governor Waller, Philly Fed President Harker
→ If they emphasize a "wait-and-see" stance, it could reduce rate hike expectations → Bearish for USD

✅ Strategy Summary: Favor “Sell Rallies” in USD/JPY — Stay Alert for Rising Volatility

📌 Strategy Scenarios:

Pair	Strategy	Key Zones
USD/JPY	Prefer sell on rallies	Resistance at 146.00–146.40, short-term target below 144.00
EUR/USD	Continue to buy dips	ECB rate cut bets are limited; watch for breakout above 1.1100–1.1150
CHF/JPY	Bullish Swiss Franc	CHF demand rising via cross-yen trades, not just USD weakness
AUD/JPY	Rebound likely capped	Even with tariff pause, upside is limited; 90.00+ seen as sell zone

🔍 Summary Table

Theme	Key Points
Trump Tariffs	Driving continued USD selling pressure
US-Japan Trade Talks	Focus on potential FX-related clauses; upside risk to JPY
Volatility	Implied vols nearing panic levels — short-term traders watching closely
Overall Strategy	Core stance: Sell USD + Buy JPY; remain flexible and reactive to developments