📌 U.S. Holiday Brings a Calm Market – Cautious Sentiment Prevails Today
✅ Market Overview
Today, the U.S. is on holiday for Presidents' Day, and Canada is also closed for Family Day, leading to lower trading volumes.
- The market remains in a wait-and-see mode following last week’s stronger-than-expected U.S. CPI and ahead of the FOMC minutes.
- Japan’s GDP exceeded expectations, fueling speculation of an early BOJ rate hike → Potential yen appreciation pressure.
- President Trump stated that a "U.S.-Russia summit is likely to take place soon" → Could impact market risk sentiment.
📌 Key Forex Market Points for Today
🎯 1. USD/JPY
📉 Trend: Range-bound at the 151 level
🔎 Market Movement
- Yen buying dominates Tokyo session; resistance around 151.80-152.00 remains firm.
- Stronger-than-expected Japanese GDP increases yen appreciation pressure.
- However, with U.S. markets closed, aggressive moves are likely to be limited.
📌 Key Level: If 152.00 remains unbroken, a downward test is possible.
🎯 2. EUR/JPY
📉 Trend: Declining due to yen strength
🔎 Market Movement
- Declined from the upper 159 range to the 158 range in Tokyo session.
- Further risk-off yen buying could extend the downside.
📌 Key Level: A clear break below 158.00 could accelerate declines.
🎯 3. EUR/USD
📈 Trend: Range-bound around 1.0500
🔎 Market Movement
- Mild USD weakness observed, but cautious buying prevails.
- Market is likely to hover around 1.0500 as traders wait for more direction.
📌 Key Level: A decisive break below 1.0500 could trigger further downside.
🎯 4. GBP/JPY
📉 Trend: Declining due to yen strength
🔎 Market Movement
- Dropped from around 192.00 to the 190.70 range during the Tokyo session.
- Downward bias persists, but low liquidity limits the momentum.
📌 Key Level: Support at 190.50 needs to hold to prevent further declines.
📌 Key Events to Watch Today
📅 Watch for Trump’s Statements
- President Trump stated, "A U.S.-Russia summit is likely to happen soon."
- This could influence market risk sentiment, potentially impacting safe-haven flows.
📅 Japan’s GDP Impact
- Monitor if the yen appreciation trend continues or reverses.
- If USD/JPY falls below 151, further yen buying pressure may emerge.
📌 Summary
🔹 With U.S. and Canadian markets closed, liquidity will be low, and active trading is likely to be subdued.
🔹 USD/JPY remains in a range at 151, while EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY continue to face yen buying pressure.
🔹 Trump’s statements could shift risk sentiment, so caution is advised.
📌 Conclusion: Avoid aggressive trading today and maintain a wait-and-see approach. Monitor how the market develops tomorrow.
