Statistical Correction Probability

Statistical Correction Probability (KDE Reversal Timer)

Overview

Most reversal indicators fail because they attempt to predict a single, exact "turning point" in a noisy market. The Statistical Correction Probability indicator takes a different approach. Based on the legendary Paul Levine Top Bottom Finder (TBF) methodology, this tool utilizes a multi-parameter grid search and Gaussian Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) to identify high-probability zones for price corrections.

Instead of one discrete signal, it generates hundreds of potential exhaustion points and merges them into a continuous probability distribution. This allows you to see exactly where different market scenarios converge—providing a "heat map" for market exhaustion.

Core Innovation: From Discrete Events to Probability

Traditional TBF indicators are sensitive to "launching points" and intraday noise. This indicator solves that by:

  1. Multi-Parameter Grid Search: Running hundreds of simulations across various shifts and volume multipliers.

  2. KDE Smoothing: Applying a Gaussian Kernel (3σ radius) to transform raw data into a smooth, readable bell curve.

  3. Statistical Confluence: The higher the peak, the more "agreement" there is between different mathematical scenarios that a correction is imminent.

Key Technical Features

  • 5-Buffer Visual Architecture: Clearly see the probability curve and three distinct confidence zones (High, Medium, and Low).

  • Institutional-Grade Statistics: The indicator outputs the Mean Bar Position (central tendency) and Standard Deviation (timing certainty) directly to your terminal.

  • Dual Normalization Modes: * Percentage Mode: Scaled 0–100% for intuitive trend exhaustion reading.

    • Pure Probability: Mathematically pure distribution (sums to 1.0) for advanced quantitative analysis.

  • Noise Reduction: The Gaussian smoothing filters out "spurious" events, ensuring you only focus on significant clusters of exhaustion.

How to Trade with This Indicator

  • Peak Probability: When the blue line enters the Lime Green (High Confidence) zone, the market is at a critical statistical exhaustion point.

  • Timing Precision: A narrow, tall distribution indicates high timing precision. A wide, flat distribution suggests a broader "reversal zone" rather than a specific entry.

  • Risk Stratification: Use the confidence zones to scale your position sizes. High-confidence zones justify higher conviction.

Input Parameters

  • VWAP/TBF Launch Times: Set your anchor points for the calculation.

  • Max Shift & Volume Multiplier: Control the depth of the grid search.

  • Kernel Bandwidth: Adjust the smoothness of the probability curve.

  • Calculation Timeframe: Perform high-resolution analysis (e.g., M1) while viewing on a higher chart timeframe.

Why Choose This Tool?

Unlike standard oscillators (RSI, Stochastic) that simply measure speed, the Statistical Correction Probability indicator measures confluence. It answers the question: "How many different mathematical models agree that the price should reverse here?"

Experience the power of Gaussian statistics and Levine’s TBF logic in one professional package.

User Guide:

  1. Set Launch Points: Configure the VWAP and Top/Bottom Finder (TBF) launch points according to Paul Levine's methodology.

  2. Adjust for Timeframe & Data: Tune the Maximum Shift Bars and Multiplier parameters based on the level of noise and data irregularities on your lower timeframe. As a starting point, use:

    • Maximum Shift Bars: 15

    • Multiplier: 60

  3. Set Calculation Granularity: Configure the Confidence Timeframe. A shorter (lesser) timeframe will result in a more granular, detailed calculation.

  4. View Raw Data: To analyze unprocessed data, disable normalization and enable the "raw events" setting.

  5. Set Confidence Levels: Adjust the High Confidence and Medium Confidence thresholds according to your individual risk tolerance.

Important Note: This process requires the Anchored VWAP tool. If you do not have it, please send me a direct message after your purchase. I will provide it to you free of charge, along with detailed instructions on Paul Levine's methodology.

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L’indicatore analizza il volume da qualsiasi punto e calcola i livelli di esaurimento del mercato per quel volume. Linee principali di Meravith: Linea di esaurimento del volume rialzista – funge da obiettivo. Linea di esaurimento del volume ribassista – funge da obiettivo. Linea di tendenza – indica la tendenza del mercato. Cambia colore a seconda che il mercato sia rialzista o ribassista e funge da supporto di tendenza. Come utilizzarlo: fai doppio clic sulla linea verticale viola e spostala ne
MT5 Forecast System
Peter Maggen
Indicatori
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++ Link to EURUSD Only Free Version -->  https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/156904?source=Unknown +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Hallo Trader, This is a traditional GANN & FIBONACCI strategy based on detection of an impulsive move in the opposite direction. This is called a Breakout. At the moment of Breakout, the indicator draw
Orderflow Scalp Pro
TitanScalper
Indicatori
Orderflow Scalp Pro v2.4   delivers institutional-grade trading intelligence through advanced volume analysis, dynamic VWAP calculations, real-time aggressive score monitoring, and precision arrow signals. This complete trading system transforms complex market data into clear, actionable signals for consistent profitability on 3-4 minute timeframes. Full Documentation: [Download PDF] Four Powerful Components in One System Volume Profile HeatMap with POC/VAH/VAL Transform your charts into inst
Hyperbolic
Konstantin Gruzdev
Indicatori
The indicator is stable on noise fluctuations in price and quickly reacts to the trend. It is based on an algorithm from a system of hyperbolic functions that allows you to aggressively smooth the flat with minimal lag on the trend. It can be applied directly to the price chart, to itself, or to other indicators in order to eliminate false signals. The main purpose of the indicator is to smooth out small sawtooth price movements as much as possible. The higher the Hyperbolic parameter, the stron
FXLAND smart reversal indicator
afshin dehghanpour
Indicatori
FXLAND Smart Reversal Indicator (MT5) FXLAND Smart Reversal Indicator is a professional technical analysis tool designed to help traders identify potential price reversal zones and key market turning points with clarity and precision. The best reversal indicator and price return by choosing only one ceiling or floor in each time frame A masterpiece of combining mathematics and Gann, fractal matrix, Fibonacci, movement angle and time. Completely intelligent Key Features Detects potenti
IQ Gold Gann Levels MT5
INTRAQUOTES
Indicatori
Presenting one-of-a-kind Gann Indicator for XAUUSD IQ Gold Gann Levels is a non-repainting, precision tool designed exclusively for XAUUSD/Gold intraday trading. It uses W.D. Gann’s square root method to plot real-time support and resistance levels, helping traders spot high-probability entries with confidence and clarity. William Delbert Gann (W.D. Gann) was an exceptional market analyst whose trading technique was based on a complex blend of mathematics, geometry, astrology, and ancient calcul
Pantera Indicator
Temirlan Kdyrkhan
5 (1)
Indicatori
A tool for on-chart strategy backtesting and performance analysis. A utility for developing, debugging, and testing custom trading ideas and indicator functions. An indicator designed to quickly test trading concepts and visualize the effectiveness of different input parameters. An all-in-one sandbox for testing everything from simple crossovers to complex, multi-condition trading systems.
Support Resistance Breakout MT5
Temitayo Lawal
Indicatori
This indicator uses support and resistance, volume and some special formula to calculate the volume to filter the candles. If the volume reaches a specific value, And at the same time, Candle breaks the support/resistance line, There would be a signal and we can enter the market. Signals appear when the current candle closes. then you can enter the trade when a new candle appears. Please don't forget to follow your money management plan. MT4 Version Support/Resistance Breakout MT4 :   https:/
Impulse correction and SCOB mapper WinWorld
LEGEX LTD
Indicatori
DESCRIZIONE ICSM (Impulse-Correction SCOB Mapper) è l'indicatore che analizza il movimento dei prezzi e identifica impulsi validi, correzioni e SCOB (Single Candle Order Block). È uno strumento potente che può essere utilizzato con qualsiasi tipo di analisi tecnica perché è flessibile, informativo, facile da usare e migliora sostanzialmente la consapevolezza del trader delle zone di interesse più liquide. IMPOSTAZIONI Generale | Visivi Tema colore — definisce il tema colore dell'ICSM. SCOB
IQ Star Lines MT5
INTRAQUOTES
Indicatori
First time on MetaTrader, introducing IQ Star Lines - an original Vedic Astrology based indicator. "Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do" . - J.P. Morgan, Legendary American financier and banker. IQ Star Lines, an unique astrological indicator purely based on   Vedic astrology   calculations, published for the   first time on Metatrader.  This unique tool plots dynamic planetary grid lines based on real-time stars, constellations, and celestial movements, which allows you to plot t
Altri dall’autore
Cumulative Divergence Pro Indicator
Nurken Buralkiyev
Indicatori
Cumulative Divergence Pro: Market Microstructure Analytics Cumulative Divergence Pro is a sophisticated oscillator-type tool designed to provide traders with a deep-tier perspective on price dynamics. Unlike traditional divergence indicators that rely on arbitrary peaks and valleys, this tool operates at a granular, bar-by-bar level , utilizing statistical percentiles to identify hidden contradictions between price movement and internal candle strength. By accumulating these "divergence events"
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