Sergey Ershov / Blog
Last week significantly changed our previous scenarios. EUR/USD finished above 1.1600. bitcoin kept a neutral-bullish outlook above 73,000, although it fell sharply from 82,300 on Friday. Brent was the biggest surprise: instead of correcting to 84.00-85...
The new crisis around the Strait of Hormuz has quickly brought the geopolitical premium back into oil prices. Brent is already trading near $95, and the $100 level no longer looks like an extreme scenario. Why does this matter beyond oil traders...
P (TP) – probability of reaching Take Profit +200 points 1. AUD/USD Current price: 0.7150 Direction: LONG 📈 P (TP): 80% 💰 Position size 0.01 lot → risk: ≈ $20 = 2.0% 2. USD/CHF Current price: 0.8140 Direction: LONG 📈 P (TP): 66% 💰 Position size 0.01 lot → risk: ≈ $24.6 = 2.5% 3...
Can gold decouple from the dollar and rise independently of DXY and Treasury yields? A new model and probabilities of reaching key levels. For a long time, the relationship looked almost mechanical: the dollar rises – gold falls; US Treasury yields rise – pressure on gold increases...
Last week reversed the main trend of the previous forecast as the dollar recovered sharply after several weak weeks. The trigger was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole, where markets heard a signal that tight monetary policy would continue...
Three drivers of the August rally: ETF inflows, changing liquidity expectations and a new push from Donald Trump. The market is discussing $100,000 again, but forecasts remain extremely wide. After almost ten months of decline, bitcoin returned to the spotlight...
Last week largely confirmed the previous forecast. The main trigger was the unexpected US Treasury decision to increase Treasury bond buybacks. Markets saw this as concern over debt-servicing costs, which caused a sharp fall in the dollar...
The dollar remained weak last week after US CPI inflation slowed to 3.4%. EUR/USD tested the key 1.1580-1.1600 resistance zone on Friday, reached 1.1585 and closed near 1.1570. Gold hit a two-month high of 4,450 before correcting to 4,376. bitcoin fell from 65,100 to 62,830 amid ETF outflows...
Last week confirmed the main risk we mentioned earlier: the dollar stayed under pressure after the central bank decisions and failed to return above 100.00 on the DXY index...