Sergey Ershov / Blog
The past week once again unfolded under the influence of geopolitics, as well as market reactions to central bank decisions. The US Federal Reserve kept the rate unchanged, confirming a wait-and-see stance and caution regarding further inflation slowdown...
As expected, the past week was influenced by both macroeconomic statistics and geopolitical factors. The focus was on inflation data in the United States and Germany, however the main driver for commodity markets continued to be the situation in the Middle East...
As we warned earlier, the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and the strikes by the United States and Israel on targets in Iran led to a sharp reaction in commodity markets at the beginning of the week...
The past week unfolded in a consolidation mode for the US dollar, gold, and a number of other key assets...
On the past week, in the United States the focus was on the January labour market report, the publication of which had been postponed earlier. The data confirmed the resilience of employment and the absence of a sharp cooling in the economy, which supported cautious expectations of a Fed rate cut...
Last week can be described as crazy. Our forecast for the key trends turned out to be 100% accurate. However, we did not expect such a surge in abnormal volatility. Markets reacted in panic to the escalation of sanctions rhetoric and harsh steps by the United States toward Iran...
The past week became one of the weakest for the US dollar in recent months. USD began to lose its status as an unconditional safe-haven asset. Political and geopolitical uncertainty around the United States increased noticeably...