Sergey Ershov / Blog
Last week confirmed the main scenarios. EUR/USD returned to the 1.1580-1.1600 base after hot US CPI. Bitcoin failed to hold above 80,000 for the third time in two months. Brent briefly rose above 110 as the Middle East oil conflict expanded, while gold fell below 4,400...
📈 A stable trend is not just a long candle - it is a gold mine for a trader. The following indicators were used to assess trend stability: 📌 R² - shows how smooth and consistent the price movement was...
The Fed and ECB enter autumn with hawkish rhetoric, but EUR/USD will be driven not by rates themselves, but by how far central-bank decisions differ from what the market already expects...
Last week significantly changed our previous scenarios. EUR/USD finished above 1.1600. bitcoin kept a neutral-bullish outlook above 73,000, although it fell sharply from 82,300 on Friday. Brent was the biggest surprise: instead of correcting to 84.00-85...
The new crisis around the Strait of Hormuz has quickly brought the geopolitical premium back into oil prices. Brent is already trading near $95, and the $100 level no longer looks like an extreme scenario. Why does this matter beyond oil traders...
P (TP) – probability of reaching Take Profit +200 points 1. AUD/USD Current price: 0.7150 Direction: LONG 📈 P (TP): 80% 💰 Position size 0.01 lot → risk: ≈ $20 = 2.0% 2. USD/CHF Current price: 0.8140 Direction: LONG 📈 P (TP): 66% 💰 Position size 0.01 lot → risk: ≈ $24.6 = 2.5% 3...
Can gold decouple from the dollar and rise independently of DXY and Treasury yields? A new model and probabilities of reaching key levels. For a long time, the relationship looked almost mechanical: the dollar rises – gold falls; US Treasury yields rise – pressure on gold increases...
Last week reversed the main trend of the previous forecast as the dollar recovered sharply after several weak weeks. The trigger was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole, where markets heard a signal that tight monetary policy would continue...
Three drivers of the August rally: ETF inflows, changing liquidity expectations and a new push from Donald Trump. The market is discussing $100,000 again, but forecasts remain extremely wide. After almost ten months of decline, bitcoin returned to the spotlight...