Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for GBP/USD - page 3

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Sergey Golubev
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Asif Naveed, 2016.07.27 11:15


TENDENCY FOR THE WEEK

TENDENCY FOR THE MONTH


DECLINE

BEARISH

 

GBP/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.3165.
Pivot: 1.3165

Our preference: short positions below 1.3165 with targets @ 1.3075 & 1.3020 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.3165 look for further upside with 1.3210 & 1.3280 as targets.

Comment: the index currently faces a challenging resistance area at 1.3165.

Supports and resistances:
1.3280 ***
1.3210 ***
1.3165 ***
1.3130 Last
1.3075 ***
1.3020 ***
1.2965 **

Copyright 1999 - 2016 TRADING CENTRAL
KEY LEVELS
1.3280
1.3210
1.3165
1.3130
1.3165
1.3075
1.3020
1.2965
COMMENTS 
Resistance
Resistance
Resistance
Last
Pivot
Support
Support
Support

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.02 11:41

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Construction PMI and 57 pips range price movement

2016-08-02 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Construction PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Construction PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the construction industry.

==========

"The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) registered 45.9 in July, down fractionally from 46.0 in June and below the 50.0  no-change threshold for the second month running. The latest reading signalled the fastest overall decline in construction output since June 2009. This largely reflected the  steepest fall in commercial building for over six-and-a-half years, alongside a drop in civil engineering activity for for the first time in 2016. Residential construction also declined at a solid pace in July, but the rate of contraction eased from June’s three-and-a-half year low." 

==========

GBP/USD M5: 59 pips range price movement by U.K. Construction PMI news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.04 13:12

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Official Bank Rate and 165 pips price movement

2016-08-04 11:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight.

==========

    Bank of England cuts Bank Rate to 0.25% and introduces a package of measures designed to provide additional monetary stimulus.

    ==========

    GBP/USD M5: 165 pips price movement by BoE Official Bank Rate news event



    Sergey Golubev
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    GBP/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - bearish reversal breakdown with 1.3057 level as a target

    H4 price broke Ichimoku cloud together with symmetric triangle pattern to below for the breakdown with the bearish reversal: the price is testing  1.3111 support level to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing with 1.3057 bearish target.

    Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the intra-day bearish trend to be started, and Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator is estimating the breakdown to be continuing.

    If H4 price breaks 1.3111 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 1.3057 possible target.
    If H4 price breaks 1.3280 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be resumed.
    If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


    • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.3280 for possible buy trade
    • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.3111 support level for possible sell trade
    • Trading Summary: bearish
    Resistance
    Support
    1.32801.3111
    1.33711.3057

    SUMMARY : breakdown

    TREND : bearish
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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.05 14:53

    Intra-Day Fundamentals: Non-Farm Payrolls


    2016-08-05 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

    [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

    ==========

    "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 255,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and financial activities. Employment in mining continued to trend down."

    ==========


    GBP/USD M5: 127 pips price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news event

    H4 price broke 100 SMA for the bearish breakdown: the price is testing 1.3020 support level for the bearish breakdown to be continuing. Alternative, if the price breaks 1.3371 resistance level to above on close H4 bar so the bullish reversal will be started, otherwise - ranging bearish.


    The most likely scenario for H4 price movement is the following: the price will be on the primary bearish market condition on the secondary ranging way for whole next week for example.

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    GBPUSD August-September 2016 Forecast: weekly bearish with 1.2794 support level

    Weekly price is located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area on primary bearish market condition with 1.2794 support level to be tested for the bearish trend to be continuing:

    • The price is located to be far below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for the primary bearish condition.
    • 100 SMA is below 200 SMA for the bearish trend to be continuing.
    • The nearest support level for the pair is 1.2794.
    • The nearest resistance levels for the pair are 1.3480 and 1.5444.

    If the price breaks 1.2794 support level on weekly close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
    If the price breaks 1.3480 resistance level to above on weekly bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
    If the price breaks 1.5444 resistance level so the reversal of the weekly price movement to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
    If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

    • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1.3480 for possible buy trade
    • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.2794 support level for possible sell trade
    • Trading Summary: bearish


    Resistance
     Support
    1.34801.2794
    1.5444N/A

    SUMMARY : bearish

    TREND : breakdown
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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.12 17:17

    Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

    2016-08-12 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

    [USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

    ==========

    From MarketWatch:

    • "U.S. retail sales were little-changed in July, down from a gain of 0.8% in June, the Commerce Department reported. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected growth of 0.4% on the month, compared with an original estimate of 0.6% growth in June. Auto sales rose 1.1% in July, representing the strongest result since April. But excluding autos, retail-sales growth slumped 0.3% last month—the weakest reading since January, after a 0.9% gain in the prior month."
    • "Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, estimated that "total-real consumption, including services, starting the third quarter up at about a 3% annual rate from the second-quarter average. The net result is still solid growth," O’Sullivan said."
    • "Shepherdson said that the data fit with a 2.5% forecast for third quarter GDP, up from the 1.2% rate in the second quarter."

    ==========

    GBP/USD M5: 69 pips price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news event



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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.17 11:06

    GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Jobless Claims and 58 pips range price movement

    2016-08-17 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Jobless Claims]

    if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

    [GBP - Jobless Claims] = Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

    ==========

    • "Between January to March 2016 and April to June 2016, the number of people in work increased. The number of unemployed people and the number of people not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) fell."
    • "There were 31.75 million people in work, 172,000 more than for January to March 2016 and 606,000 more than for a year earlier."
    • "There were 23.22 million people working full-time, 374,000 more than for a year earlier. There were 8.53 million people working part-time, 231,000 more than for a year earlier."
    • "The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 74.5%, the highest since comparable records began in 1971."
    • "There were 1.64 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 52,000 fewer than for January to March 2016, 207,000 fewer than for a year earlier and the lowest since March to May 2008."
    • "There were 890,000 unemployed men, 124,000 fewer than for a year earlier. There were 750,000 unemployed women, 84,000 fewer than for a year earlier."
    • "The unemployment rate was 4.9%, down from 5.6% for a year earlier. The last time it was lower was for July to September 2005. The unemployment rate is the proportion of the labour force (those in work plus those unemployed) that were unemployed."
    • "There were 8.84 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive (not working and not seeking or available to work), 58,000 fewer than for January to March 2016 and 179,000 fewer than for a year earlier."
    • "The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.6%, the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971."

    ==========

    GBP/USD M5: 58 pips range price movement by U.K. Jobless Claims news event



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    GBP (Great British Pound) Bullish

    illjoker Bond, 2016.08.17 22:14

    Sterling has been going for a great price since the Brexit. England has been importing massive amounts of gold since then which might be why it has been slow to gather its' strength at these phenomenal prices. It supported at its' post-Brexit lows almost exactly, a boon of confidence for bulls I'm sure.

    At the moment I think the price is satisfactory to  buy for the long-term as I figure it has more potential upside than downside within a 2 year period. In the moderate term I think it could go either way, plausible upside vs. plausible downside are somewhat equivalent although I think in the 3-month time frame it's likely to move up a few percentage points. In the short-term the case can be made for bulls as it pulled off a substantial intra-day rally against the US dollar.

    I think one of the most risk-averse strategies for trading the GBP is to buy it against the JPY, USD and EUR by averaging down, selling positions for a profit and holding for the long-term if need be. I'm capable of tactical technical trading as well.

    How does mlq5 trade the pound?


    GBPUSD 1-hour Chart Navy Line Misty Rose Background


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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.26 10:49

    GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Second Estimate U.K. Gross Domestic Product and 19 pips range price movement

    2016-08-26 08:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

    [GBP - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

    ==========


    ==========

    GBP/USD M5: 19 pips range price movement by Second Estimate U.K. Gross Domestic Product news event



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