Press review - page 401

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Trade Balance and 22 pips price movement

2016-05-24 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

• past data is 189M
• forecast data is 40M
• actual data is 292M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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For April 2016 compared with April 2015:

• Goods exports rose $166 million (4.0 percent) to $4.3 billion.
• Fruit led the rise in exports, up $59 million (16 percent).
• Goods imports rose $58 million (1.5 percent) to $4.0 billion.
• Consumption goods led the rise in imports, up $129 million (14 percent).
• The trade surplus was $292 million (6.8 percent of exports).

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NZD/USD M5: 22 pips price movement by NZ Trade Balance news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Analysis for Brent Crude Oil: key resistance level at 49.82 to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing; 53.95 is the next target (adapted from the article)

• "The US Dollar and Crude Oil are both higher on the day along with SPX500. Much of what happened on Tuesday appears to be fueled by a risk-on rally as even the European Stoxx 600 rose by the most in six weeks at 2.2% on ~110% of its average monthly volume."
• "On Wednesday, the EIA inventory data and Cushing Stock will be looked to confirm recent sentiment that there are large draws on current supplies that are aligning with disruptions of supply in Nigeria to further support price toward $50/bbl. Tomorrow’s EIA numbers are expected to come in at 2.25m bbl decline in crude stockpiles. Thankfully, the disruptions in Crude from the Canadian Wildfires don’t appear to be long-lasting as Canadian oil-sands facilities that workers evacuated last week due to wildfires are being allowed to prepare for the restart."

Daily price is on primary bullish market condition located above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA reversal area: the price is on ranging within the following key narrow s/r levels:

• 49.82 resistance level, if the price breaks this level to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing with 53.95 as the new nearest target; and
• 47.24 support level, if the price breaks this level to below so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started with 40.55 level as the next bearish reversal target.
  

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoC Overnight Rate and 69 pips price movement

2016-05-25 14:00 GMT | [CAD - Overnight Rate]

• past data is 0.50%
• forecast data is 0.50%
• actual data is 0.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

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"The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent."

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USD/CAD M5: 69 pips price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: bullish ranging above bearish reversal

2016-05-25 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is 1.3M
• forecast data is -1.7M
• actual data is -4.2M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.2 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bullish ranging above bearish reversal. The price is on ranging to be above 200 period SMA within 49.65 resistance and 49.14 support levels.

If the price breaks 49.65 resistance level so the intra-day primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 49.14 support so the reversal of the M5 price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Private Capital Expenditure and 36 pips price movement

2016-05-26 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Private Capital Expenditure]

• past data is 1.8%
• forecast data is -3.2%
• actual data is -5.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Private Capital Expenditure] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses.

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• The trend volume estimate for total new capital expenditure fell by 2.8% in the March quarter 2016 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell by 5.2%.
• The trend volume estimate for buildings and structures fell by 3.6% in the March quarter 2016 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell by 7.9%.
• The trend volume estimate for equipment, plant and machinery fell by 1.0% in the March quarter 2016 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell by 0.5%.

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AUD/USD M5: 36 pips price movement by Private Capital Expenditure news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (based on the article)

What’s Expected:



"Why Is This Event Important:Even though Fed Chair Janet Yellen remains in no rush to implement higher borrowing-costs, we may see a greater dissent at the next quarterly meeting in June as a growing number of central bank officials see the U.S. economy approaching ‘full-employment.’"

Daily Targets
EURUSD D1

• Daily price is on bullish market condition located near and above 200-day SMA reversal.
• The price is on narrow ranging within 50.0% Fibo resistance level at 1.1371 and Fibo support level at 1.1128.
• If the price breaks 1.1371 resistance to above on daily close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
• If the price breaks 1.1128 support level to below on close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement to the primary bearish condition will be started.
• RSI indicator is estimating the ranging condition aroud 200-day SMA to be continuing in the near future.
  

Intra-Day Targets
EURUSD M5

• The price is located inside the ranging area within 200 period SMA (200 SMAS) and 100 period SMA (100 SMA) waiting for direction.
• 200 SMA is located below the price for the bullish condition.
  
• RSI indicator is estimating for the price to be on ranging bullish condition above 200 SMA area.
• Ascending triangle pattern was fomred by the price to be crossed for the bullish trend to be continuing.
  
• If the price breaks 1.1189 resistance level to above on close intra-day bar so the bullish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging up to the new 'top' resistance to be formed.
• If the price breaks 1.1165 support level to below on close bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement to the primary ebarish market condition may be started.
• If the price breaks 1.1152 support level so the price will be reversed to the bearish condition with the good possibility to breakdown.

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Total Business Investment and 47 pips price movement

2016-05-26 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Total Business Investment]

• past data is -2.0%
• forecast data is 3.2%
• actual data is -0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Total Business Investment] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of capital investments made by businesses and the government.

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• "Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) in volume terms was estimated to have risen by 0.5% from £76.6 billion to £76.9 billion between Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016."
• "Between Quarter 4 2015 and Quarter 1 2016, business investment, in volume terms, was estimated to have decreased by 0.5% from £43.3 billion to £43.1 billion."
• "Between Quarter 1 2015 and Quarter 1 2016, GFCF was estimated to have increased by 1.1% from £76.1 billion to £76.9 billion."
• "Business investment was estimated to have decreased by 0.4% between Quarter 1 2015 and Quarter 1 2016, from £43.3 billion to £43.1 billion."

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GBP/USD M5: 47 pips price movement by U.K. Total Business Investment news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.26 10:55

...

Intra-Day Targets

EURUSD M5

• The price is located inside the ranging area within 200 period SMA (200 SMAS) and 100 period SMA (100 SMA) waiting for direction.
• 200 SMA is located below the price for the bullish condition.
  
• RSI indicator is estimating for the price to be on ranging bullish condition above 200 SMA area.
• Ascending triangle pattern was fomred by the price to be crossed for the bullish trend to be continuing.
  
• If the price breaks 1.1189 resistance level to above on close intra-day bar so the bullish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging up to the new 'top' resistance to be formed.
• If the price breaks 1.1165 support level to below on close bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement to the primary ebarish market condition may be started.
• If the price breaks 1.1152 support level so the price will be reversed to the bearish condition with the good possibility to breakdown.

EUR/USD M5: 47 pips price movement by Durable Goods Orders news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks - "We do not expect any comments on the near-term"

2016-05-27 17:15 GMT | [USD - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech]

Barclays:

• Gregory Mankiw will engage Chair Yellen in "a conversation about her groundbreaking achievements.”
  
• We do not expect any comments on the near-term path of monetary policy as we believe she will wait for her recently scheduled June 6 speech to make any substantive policy comment.

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H4 price is located below SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) for the primary bearish market condition for the ranging within 1.1216 resistance level and 1.1128 support level. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the secondary rally to be started with 1.1242 level as a nearest target to re-enter. The bullish reversal level at 1.1348 located near and abvove 200 SMA, and if the price breaks this level to above so the bullish reversal of the intra-day price movement will be started.

• If the price will break 1.1216 resistance level to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  
• If price will break 1.1128 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
  

Resistance	Support
1.1216	1.1128
1.1242	N/A

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (adapted from the article)

"An upward revision in the preliminary 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may trigger near-term selloff in EUR/USD as signs of a stronger recovery provide the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with greater scope to implement higher borrowing-costs."

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

"With the U.S. economy approaching ‘full-employment,’ a faster rate of growth may encourage a greater number of Fed officials to vote for a rate-hike at the next quarterly meeting in June as the central bank sees a sustainable recovery over the policy horizon."

Intra-Day Levels
EURUSD H1

The price is located below 200 SMA for the bearish market condition - price is on ranging around 100 SMA waiting for direction of the trend:

• for the ranging bearish in case the price will be inside 100 SMA/200 SMA area, and
• for the primary bearish trend to be continuing in case the price will be located below 100 SMA/200 SMA area.

If the price breaks 1.1174 support level on close hourly bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing up to 1.1138 as a good target to re-enter.
If the price breaks 1.1236 resistance level on close hourly bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels waiting for direction.