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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.10 07:19
USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China's Producer Price Index and 28 pips price movement
2016-05-10 01:30 GMT | [CNY - PPI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNH in our case)
[CNY - PPI] = Change in the price of goods purchased and sold by producers.
USDCNH M5: 28 pips price movement by China's Producer Price Index news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.14 15:12
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, USD/CNH, AUD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)
Dollar Index - "The three-month rally in risk-oriented assets
has started to falter, and a deepening of that slide could certainly
agitate some haven appeal for the Greenback. However, full-scale risk
aversion is the thousand point weight swinging above the market and what
would most effectively leverage the depth of haven appeal that would
activate the currency’s haven status. That said, we may not need such an
extreme. With fears of currency wars growing, FX volatility could make
for a more ready driver. Watch this week’s G-7 meeting for FX mentions."
GBP/USD - "GBP/USD stands at risk of facing range-bound
conditions next week as market participants weigh the outlook for
monetary policy, but the pair may continue to mark fresh monthly lows
over the coming days should the exchange rate fail to hold above
near-term support around 1.4290 (78.6% Fib retracement) to 1.4330 (23.6%
USD/CNH - "Chinese commodities rode roller coasters this
week. Major commodities plunged to the daily limit-downs on Monday.
Then they diverged on Thursday: black commodities extended losses while
crops jumped higher with soybean and rapeseed hitting the daily
limit-ups. However, on Friday, soybean oil,
palm oil as well as five black commodities, dropped to the daily
limit-downs again. China’s commodity market is less developed than in US
or other major developed countries; it is also less regulated compared
to Chinese equity market. Such dramatic moves in the commodity market
could lead to a meltdown in the near term. If it happens, the panic may
drive capitals rushing out of the country, similar as it was seen early
this year cause by the tumbling equities. This is a potential risk for
the Chinese Yuan as a significant increase in capital outflows often
drives the currency lower."
AUD/USD - "The prospect of a more hawkish US central
bank bodes ill for risk appetite at a time when investors seem
increasingly concerned about a broad-based slowdown in global economic
growth. As such, news-flow to that effect may send the
sentiment-sensitive Aussie lower alongside share prices."
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Retail Sales released on Friday topped expectations and while the
print alleviates some concerns over the health of the consumer, the
print does little to move the needle on central bank policy moving
forward. If anything, it does leave the door open with the focus now
shifting towards more significant data next week. Traders will be
closely eyeing the release of the April U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
and minutes from April 27th policy meeting
where we hope to get a more detailed picture of where the committee
members stand as it pertains to the appropriate timing of future
interest rate hikes. Keep in mind that of the Fed’s dual mandate,
inflation remains the laggard; lending added significance to the current
pace of price growth."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.19 09:03
USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: JPY Machine Tool Orders and 47 pips price movement
2016-05-19 06:00 GMT | [JPY - Machine Tool Orders]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)
[JPY - Machine Tool Orders] = Machine Tool Orders is considered a leading
indicator of business capital spending, and increases are indicative of
stronger business confidence and a better future outlook. Higher capital
spending is also positive for the Japanese employment situation, as
companies will generally require new employees to run and maintain new
USD/CNH M5: 47 pips price movement by JPY Machine Tool Orders news event
USD/CNH Weekly Technical Analysis - ranging bullish
is located above SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period
200 (200-SMA) for the bullish market condition with the ranging within 6.5887 resistance and 6.4563 support level. The bearish reversal of the price movement is very unlikely in 2016 because of the following:
Thus, there are 3 main scenarios for the price movement for this year for example:
SUMMARY : ranging
Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.01 09:12
USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and 92 pips price movement
2016-06-01 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
USD/CNH M30: 92 pips price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.03 07:52
USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Services PMI and 20 pips price movement
2016-06-03 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Services PMI]
[CNY - Caixin Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.
USD/CNH M5: 20 pips price movement by Caixin Services PMI news event
2016-06-03 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
"The unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 4.7 percent in May, and nonfarm payroll employment changed little (+38,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care. Mining continued to lose jobs, and employment in information decreased due to a strike."
USD/CNH M15: 480 pips price movement by U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.08 07:26
USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and 23 pips price movement
2016-06-08 03:13 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]
[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.
USD/CNH M5: 23 pips price movement by China Trade Balance news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.11 10:11
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, NZD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CNH, USD/JPY, AUD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)
Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.13 08:22
USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Industrial Production and 54 pips price movement
2016-06-13 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Industrial Production]
[CNY - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
"Industrial output in China was up 6.0 percent on year in May, the
National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday - in line with expectations
and unchanged from the previous month."
USD/CNH M5: 54 pips price movement by China Industrial Production news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.17 10:33
USD/CNH Technical Analysis: bullish trend near 100 SMA ranging border (based on the article)
As we see from the chart above - the daily price is located above 200 SMA with near and above 100 SMA for the primary bullish market condition. If the price breaks 6.6152 resistance level to above so the daily bullish trend will be continuing, otherwise - the price will be on ranging within the levels waiting for direction.By the way, the bearish reversal level for the daily price is 6.4665 located near and below 200 SMA, and if the price breaks this level to below so the bearish reversal of the price movement will be started.