Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for USD/CNH - page 2

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.10 07:19

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China's Producer Price Index and 28 pips price movement

2016-05-10 01:30 GMT | [CNY - PPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNH in our case)

[CNY - PPI] = Change in the price of goods purchased and sold by producers.

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USDCNH M5: 28 pips price movement by China's Producer Price Index news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.14 15:12

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, USD/CNH, AUD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "The three-month rally in risk-oriented assets has started to falter, and a deepening of that slide could certainly agitate some haven appeal for the Greenback. However, full-scale risk aversion is the thousand point weight swinging above the market and what would most effectively leverage the depth of haven appeal that would activate the currency’s haven status. That said, we may not need such an extreme. With fears of currency wars growing, FX volatility could make for a more ready driver. Watch this week’s G-7 meeting for FX mentions."


GBP/USD - "GBP/USD stands at risk of facing range-bound conditions next week as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy, but the pair may continue to mark fresh monthly lows over the coming days should the exchange rate fail to hold above near-term support around 1.4290 (78.6% Fib retracement) to 1.4330 (23.6% Fib expansion)."


USD/CNH - "Chinese commodities rode roller coasters this week. Major commodities plunged to the daily limit-downs on Monday. Then they diverged on Thursday: black commodities extended losses while crops jumped higher with soybean and rapeseed hitting the daily limit-ups. However, on Friday, soybean oil, palm oil as well as five black commodities, dropped to the daily limit-downs again. China’s commodity market is less developed than in US or other major developed countries; it is also less regulated compared to Chinese equity market. Such dramatic moves in the commodity market could lead to a meltdown in the near term. If it happens, the panic may drive capitals rushing out of the country, similar as it was seen early this year cause by the tumbling equities. This is a potential risk for the Chinese Yuan as a significant increase in capital outflows often drives the currency lower."


AUD/USD - "The prospect of a more hawkish US central bank bodes ill for risk appetite at a time when investors seem increasingly concerned about a broad-based slowdown in global economic growth. As such, news-flow to that effect may send the sentiment-sensitive Aussie lower alongside share prices."


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Retail Sales released on Friday topped expectations and while the print alleviates some concerns over the health of the consumer, the print does little to move the needle on central bank policy moving forward. If anything, it does leave the door open with the focus now shifting towards more significant data next week. Traders will be closely eyeing the release of the April U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and minutes from April 27th policy meeting where we hope to get a more detailed picture of where the committee members stand as it pertains to the appropriate timing of future interest rate hikes. Keep in mind that of the Fed’s dual mandate, inflation remains the laggard; lending added significance to the current pace of price growth."


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.19 09:03

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: JPY Machine Tool Orders and 47 pips price movement

2016-05-19 06:00 GMT | [JPY - Machine Tool Orders]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Machine Tool Orders] = Machine Tool Orders is considered a leading indicator of business capital spending, and increases are indicative of stronger business confidence and a better future outlook. Higher capital spending is also positive for the Japanese employment situation, as companies will generally require new employees to run and maintain new machinery.

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USD/CNH M5: 47 pips price movement by JPY Machine Tool Orders news event



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USD/CNH Weekly Technical Analysis - ranging bullish

Weekly price is located above SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) for the bullish market condition with the ranging within 6.5887 resistance and 6.4563 support level. The bearish reversal of the price movement is very unlikely in 2016 because of the following:

  • 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area is located to be far from the market price at the level to be near 6.3147 support, and
  • 100 SMA is above 200 SMA for the uptrend to be continuing in the future.

Thus, there are 3 main scenarios for the price movement for this year for example:

  • If the price will break 6.5887 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 6.4563 support so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
6.58876.4563
6.76816.3147


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 6.4563 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 6.5887 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bullish

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.01 09:12

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and 92 pips price movement

2016-06-01 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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USD/CNH M30: 92 pips price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.03 07:52

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Services PMI and 20 pips price movement

2016-06-03 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Services PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.

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"Caixin China Composite PMI™ data (which covers both manufacturing and services) pointed to a further increase in total Chinese business activity during May. However, the Composite Output Index posted 50.5, down from 50.8 in April, to signal the slowest rate of expansion in the current three-month sequence of growth. May survey data indicated that overall Chinese business activity growth weakened for the second month in a row, as services activity expanded at a slower rate and manufacturers reported a fractional fall in production for the second consecutive month. Furthermore, it was the weakest increase in service sector business activity since February, with the Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index registering 51.2 in May, down from 51.8 in the previous month."

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USD/CNH M5: 20 pips price movement by Caixin Services PMI news event



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USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and 180 pips price movement


2016-06-03 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

"The unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 4.7 percent in May, and nonfarm payroll employment changed little (+38,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care. Mining continued to lose jobs, and employment in information decreased due to a strike."

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USD/CNH M15: 480 pips price movement by U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls news event


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.08 07:26

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and 23 pips price movement

2016-06-08 03:13 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

==========

USD/CNH M5: 23 pips price movement by China Trade Balance news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.11 10:11

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, NZD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CNH, USD/JPY, AUD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)

USD/CNH - "The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting will be held next week. As the Chinese currency become more market-driven, China’s most important counterpart, the US, has contributed to some of the largest moves to the Yuan pairs, such as the recent bout of Dollar weakness being driven by a disappointing non-farm payrolls print. Although the June rate hike is less likely, any clue that hints a July rate hike could largely affect the Dollar pairs, including the Dollar-Yuan. Other key US data, such as the May Industrial Production and the Jobless Claims, could affect the Dollar-Yuan pairs as well. China’s domestic Industrial Production and Retail Sales gauges may have limited impact on Yuan pairs unless we see a significant miss, as it has already been well-known that China’s manufacturing industries would have to take a quite long time (at least two years) to recover."




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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.13 08:22

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Industrial Production and 54 pips price movement

2016-06-13 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Industrial Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

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"Industrial output in China was up 6.0 percent on year in May, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday - in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month."

==========

USD/CNH M5: 54 pips price movement by China Industrial Production news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.17 10:33

USD/CNH Technical Analysis: bullish trend near 100 SMA ranging border (based on the article)


  • "The pair continues to test higher as the price pivots around the 6.6000 level while appearing to find short term support at 6.5880, in turn creating a situation in which the price trades in what looks like an undecided narrow range for the last couple of days."
  • "If price is able to break above 6.6000 and hold the level, it might initially expose possible resistance at the February 3 high around 6.6500."
  • "A break below 6.5880 may put the focus again on the 6.5500 prior support level. A break below that level could put the spotlight on a major support confluence zone (marked blue) that combines the 6.5000 handle, 200 day SMA, trend line from October 2015, and the 6.47446 level, which is the 0.382 Fib from the long term up trend as marked from the 2014 low at 6.0150."

As we see from the chart above - the daily price is located above 200 SMA with near and above 100 SMA for the primary bullish market condition. If the price breaks 6.6152 resistance level to above so the daily bullish trend will be continuing, otherwise - the price will be on ranging within the levels waiting for direction.

By the way, the bearish reversal level for the daily price is 6.4665 located near and below 200 SMA, and if the price breaks this level to below so the bearish reversal of the price movement will be started.


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