Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 173

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.10 14:26

The Baidu Crisis Could Be Over, Time To Buy Baidu? (based on the article)

  • "In response to the crackdown by the Chinese authorities over Baidu's search related advertising procedures, Robin Li, Baidu CEO, said that the company will be setting up a 1 billion yuan fund for future damage claims, should they arise."
  • "The Chinese authorities also instructed Baidu to change its advertising practices by the end of the month by adding risk warnings (I am assuming where applicable) to health related paid advertising. In addition, the authorities want Baidu to restrict the advertising load rate to 30% or less on paid advertising search results."
  • "Nomura Securities which has had a Neutral rating but a higher target price of $187 per share of Baidu for a while now is out putting a negative spin on the outcome of the tragedy, more than likely to justify their rating."
  • "Baidu shares are down almost 17% since their stellar earnings from a couple of weeks ago and down about 14% since the story broke first on rival, Sina.com’s website. The irony of the entire situation is that Sina.com itself has been in major violation of China’s anti-porn crackdown in the past and seems to be enjoying the shift in the authorities attention to Baidu."



From the technical points of view, Baidu shares is on daily breakdown with bearish reversal to be continuing and withweekly breakdown with the bearish reversal to be started. I think, it may be the time to wait for the key support level at 130.50 as the bottom to be tested, and after that only we may start to think about any "time to buy baidu" for example sorry.


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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for S&P 500

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.10 16:50

S&P 500 Price Action Analysis - bullish ranging within 30-day low/30-day high area

Daily price is located above 200 period SMA (200 SMA) and 100 period SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bullish market condition.

  • The price is ranging between ranging between 30-day low at 2,025.75 and 30-day high at 2,104.75;
  • 'Reversal' 200-day SMA is located new and below 30-day low, and if the price breaks this level so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the ranging bearish market condition will be started.
  • RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish trend to be continuing.


  • If the price will break 2,104.75 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing without ranging.
  • If price will break 2,025.75 support level so the bearish reversal will be started with the secondary ranging condition.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
2,104.752,030.25
2,109.752,025.75

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.10 20:39

Gold Lower On Follow-Through Selling and Profit Taking (based on the article)

"Gold prices ended the U.S. day session modestly lower Tuesday, on some follow-through selling from the shorter-term futures traders, after the solid losses seen Monday. Some profit taking was also featured. The recent rebound in the U.S. dollar index has also been a bearish “outside market” force working against the precious metals bulls the past few sessions. June Comex gold futures were last down $4.80 an ounce at $1,261.90. July Comex silver was last down $0.009 at $17.08 an ounce."


As we see from the chart above - the intra-day price (H4) is breaking 100 period SMA (100 SMA) to below for the ranging market condition: if the price breaks 1,256.72 support level to below so the bearish reversal of the price movement will be started up to 1,237.63 level to re-enter.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.11 16:43

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event:  intra-day bullish reversal with breakout and 46.83 resistance to be tested

2016-05-11 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.4 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bullish breakout. The price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA area from 45.24 to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition: price broke key levels for good breaking with 46.83 resistance to be tested for the intra-day bullish trend to be continuing.




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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for Brent Crude Oil

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.11 18:08

The Crude Oil is continuing with the bullish breakout in intra-day basis: the key resistance level at 46.75 is going to be broken by the price to above for the breakout to be continuing and with 48.25 as the nearest bullish target to re-enter. Anyway, the bearish reversal level is 43.30, and if the price breaks this support level to below so the bearish reversal of the intra-day price movement will be started.


If we look at the daily price so the price came to be very close to 30-day high at 48.25, and if this level will be broken by the price to above so we may see the daily bullish trend to be continuing.



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.12 08:10

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations and 25 pips price movement

2016-05-12 01:00 GMT | [AUD - Inflation Expectations]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Inflation Expectations] = Percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months.

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"The expected inflation rate (30-per-cent trimmed mean measure), reported in the Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations, fell by 0.4 percentage points to 3.2 per cent in May 2016. In May, the proportion of respondents (excluding respondents in the ‘don’t know’ category) expecting the inflation rate to fall within the 0-5 per cent range fell to 68.3 percent (from 69.3 per cent in April). The weighted mean of responses falling in the 0-5 per cent range fell to 2.2 per cent in May from 2.4 percent in April. May’s weighted mean (of responses in the 0-5 per cent range) is below the 2.5 per cent 12-month average."

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AUD/USD M5: 25 pips price movement by MI Inflation Expectations news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.12 10:42

Trading News Events: Bank of England Official Bank Rate (based on the article)

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

Indeed, Governor Mark Carney may continue to argue that the next move will be to normalize monetary policy, but the central bank may sound increasingly cautious this time around as the U.K. Referendum clouds the economic outlook for the region.

Nevertheless, sticky inflation paired signs of stronger wage growth may spur a dissent within the MPC, and a split vote to retain the current policy may generate a bullish reaction in the British Pound as it puts increased pressure on the BoE to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish GBP Trade: BoE Trims Growth & Inflation Forecast
  • Need red, five-minute candle following the GDP report to consider a short sterling trade.
  • If market reaction favors bearish British Pound trade, short GBP/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.
Bullish GBP Trade: MPC Adopts More Hawkish Outlook for Monetary Policy
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBP/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bearish British Pound trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
GBPUSD Daily


  • Even though GBP/USD remains stuck in a narrow range ahead of the BoE meeting, the pair may make a more meaningful attempt to threaten the downward trend carried over from August, with the pound-dollar at a risk for a further advance as long as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains the bullish formation from earlier this year.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.4910 (61.8% retracement) to 1.4930 (38.2% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3870 (78.6% expansion) and 1.3960 (50% expansion)

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.12 13:10

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Official Bank Rate and 57 pips price movement

2016-05-12 11:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight.

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Bank of England maintains Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at £375 billion

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GBP/USD M5: 57 pips price movement by BoE Official Bank Rate news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.13 07:18

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Retail Sales and 9 pips price movement

2016-05-12 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

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NZD/USD M5: 9 pips price movement by NZ Retail Sales news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.13 15:10

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Advance Retail Sales and 35 pips price movement

2016-05-13 12:30 GMT | [USD - Advance Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Advance Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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EUR/USD M5: 35 pips price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news event :