Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 118

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.22 11:15

Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD - Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (based on efxnews article)


  • The price is ranging between 1.0830 & 1.0995 levels for the primary bearish.
  • The price will go to be out of ranging zone in case of 1.0879 support level to be broken from above to below.
  • The price is located between 21 SMA and 50 SMA, and it is going along with 50 SMA as the strong resistance level of the value of it.
  • "With fresh mid­ body support at 1.0879, near-term bulls should be inspired to at least test resistance at the lower end of the "Cloud" at 1.0994. If not stopping there a short-term descending trendline, now at 1.1105 would also deserve some attention. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.0830 & 1.0995."

The resistance level may be broken by price from below to above for the new rally, or the price will continuing with ranging between the levels.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.22 20:05

EURUSD bangs on support (based on forexlive article)


"Key level for the pair being tested.The 61.8% is at 1.08688. The 100 hour MA is at 1.08746. This is the patient level for buyers outlined in an earlier post.  Getting back above the 50% at the 1.08878 will be eyed on a rebound."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.23 14:53

Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD - SEB (based on efxnews article)


EUR/USD: Ready to try the +1.10s. Yesterday's dip lower confirmed mid-body support. A move over 1.0969 would target the +1.10s. Attraction/resistance above to keep in mind in this scenario is located in the 1.0994\1.1092-area. A drop below 1.0869 would likely kill the possibility to build/add to shorts on more favorable levels. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.0845 & 1.1010.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.24 14:10

Credit Agricole for EURUSD - Where To Sell (based on efxnews article)

  • "In the very short-term further position-squaring related upside risk cannot be excluded as tighter monetary conditions as driven by the Fed and intact uncertainty as related to China may keep risk sentiment unstable. Most recent China PMI releases keep investors’ growth expectations strongly muted.
  • However, from a broader angle, we expect risk sentiment to stabilize anew. This is mainly due to the notion that further improving growth prospects should ultimately compensate for rising Fed rate expectations.
  • Elsewhere, a further appreciating EUR would increase downside risks to inflation and that may trigger a more aggressive rhetoric by ECB members.
  • As a result to the above outlined conditions we remain in favour of selling EUR rallies towards 1.1100- 1200."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.27 09:32

SEB bank - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/CHF (based on efxnews article)

EUR/USD: "Testing nearby dynamic resistance. Buyers keep testing dynamic resistance at the low end of the short-term "Cloud" (at market). An "Upper Range Extension" (topside violation of the European opening hour range) would set some pressure on more resistance at 1.1075/85."


USD/JPY: "Short-term "Round-top" forming. Price action is tilted to the downside and first-hand dynamic support has been eroded. A counter-trend move lower has become increasingly likely - more so if breaking a near-term "Equality point" at 123.28 and after this not breaking back over 124.19. If this unfolds as thought, the next attraction/support below to scout is located at 122.72/45."


EUR/CHF: "An ongoing inter-range climb - Price action was bullish throughout the week last week, but little to take note of until now when a short-term "Equality point" has been violated and the early Jun high is under pressure. If not stopping here 1.0610 & 1.0650 are attraction/resistance levels to scout. In a medium-term perspective the next key level must be the Mid-Feb reaction high of 1.0811."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.27 17:46

RBS - 1.05 target for EURUSD (based on forexlive article)


The Royal Bank of Scotland predicted the price for EURUSD as 1.05 1-year target, and those are the 5 key factors from RBS about why 1.05:

  • "None of this has much directly to do with Greece."
  • "Other factors that support some renewed fall in EUR/USD this year: faster money positioning in EUR/USD is now much cleaner than it was a few months ago, short EUR/USD is a far less crowded trade."
  • "The German government bond market, which went into price melt-down in March, raising serious risks to other most owned positions like short EUR/USD, has stabilised."
  • "Oil prices are falling again steadily."
  • "Another key variable is US data and the US Federal Reserve. Informing our EUR/USD lower view is the assumption that the Federal Reserve makes its first tightening move in September his year. That is a close call. But a September rate cut is not fully priced and -if manifest - could give the Dollar a boost into Q4."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.28 09:00

Deutsche Bank with updated EURUSD review: target at 1.02 by Q3-end (based on efxnews article)

The Deutsche Bank updated their view on EUR/USD summarized all the factors and made a conclusion about target EUR/USD at 1.02 by Q3-end:

  • "The European outflow story remains fully on track. We continue to see European outflows as part of a multi-year shift in portfolio allocation behaviour towards foreign assets."
  • "The most important is the Fed's re-investment policy on QE assets, because decisions here will determine the prospect of what would essentially be QT, or quantitative tightening: nearly half a trillion dollars matures in 2016, almost equivalent to a full QE program in reverse."
  • "Irrespective of lift-off, the key point then is that Fed tightening is multi-dimensional and likely to steadily reinforce a persistent shift away from the dollar as the world's major funding currency."
"In sum, we remain bearish EUR/USD and after a Q2 lull accompanied by much lighter investor positioning we expect expect the weakening trend to resume," DB concludes.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.28 16:34

Buying the dollar correction before Thursday and selling EUR/USD if it pushes any higher' (based on efxnews article)

Societe Generale made some prediction concerning EUR/USD based on fundamental analysis:

  • "The overall picture is sufficiently blurred that month-end flows and pre-FOMC position-squaring will probably dominate. The 10-year EU/US yield spread is range-bound and the 2-year rate spread is back up over the last couple of days, both very consistent with the EUR/USD bounce, and doing absolutely nothing to suggest the range will break without new developments."
  • "No-one (us included) expects much from the FOMC statement tomorrow other than affirming data-dependence, so we’ll have to wait for the GDP data Thursday (expect a strong 3.3% growth rate)."
  • "The overall pattern of the news in the next three days supports the idea of buying the dollar correction before Thursday and selling EUR/USD if it pushes any higher."

it is not very clear but the right.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.29 11:58

Credit Agricole - 'The Fed in our view is unlikely to pre-commit to a September rate hike at today’s meeting' (based on efxnews article)

  • "The Fed in our view is unlikely to pre-commit to a September rate hike at today’s meeting. Instead, it is more likely to remain data dependent, noting a cautiously upbeat assessment of progress on its dual mandate. Indeed, its statement will likely reflect the strength of the labour market, indicating the absorption of slack and the tentative signs of wage pressure."
  • "Any shift in the FOMC’s statement will likely drive the FX market’s response."
  • "The biggest losers will likely remain commodity currencies and those with large external imbalances."
  • "We think any pullback will be short-lived, especially given that markets still have plenty of data to digests before the September meeting."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.29 20:20

2015-07-29 19:00 GMT (or 21:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate & FOMC Statement]
  • past data is 0.25%
  • forecast data is 0.25%
  • actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate & FOMC Statement] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

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"To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run."

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GBPUSD M5: 54 pips range price movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate & FOMC Statement news event:


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EURUSD M5: 75 pips range price movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate & FOMC Statement news event:



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